JFresh x AllThreeZones Microstat Player Cards Explainer
How to Understand the Stats on the New WAR + Microstat Player Cards
A few months back, I announced the new XL Player Cards, a long-awaited collaboration with Corey Sznajder of AllThreeZones that finally bring together macro- and micro-level hockey player data into one complete package. These cards are now available to $10 Patreon subscribers.
AllThreeZones is a project that Corey has undertaken over several years to bring the type of detailed NHL player data that’s usually reserved for teams and broadcasters to the public. He manually tracks hundreds of games every year, spanning every team, building up a database of dozens of stats that wouldn’t otherwise be available to us, including transition, passing, and shot type metrics. These stats have opened up new ways of understanding teams, players, and the sport itself, and are the product of hours upon hours of hard work on his part each season.
If metrics like WAR try to measure “what” impact a player has on the ice, microstats tell the “how.” A high even strength offence WAR tells us that a player creates chances when he’s on the ice, but only with micro-stats can we learn how they do it. In effect, microstats take the most important parts of the “eye test” and turn them into numbers that can be compared across players and teams. They represent the closest we in the public can come to using the kinds of data that analytically-invested NHL teams use.
Corey’s stats have been an important tool in my (and many others’) player analysis in the past few years, and I’m so excited to be able to spread his work even further.
In this article, I’m going to run through what you need to know about these stats and how to understand the great data that’s included on these cards.
The first thing you need to understand is that, like with all my player cards, all of the stats are representated as percentiles. That means that they show were a player ranks compared to his peers (forwards to forwards, defencemen to defencemen) in each category. If, for example, he scores a 97% in high-danger passes, that means he created more high-danger passes than 97% of active forwards in 2021-22.
In the bottom right of each card, you’ll see “Player Games Tracked” with a number next to it. This shows how many of the player’s 2021-22 games Corey has tracked. He chooses games to track essentially at random spread across the season, so he has found that player microstats tend to stabilize after about 20 GP (meaning the difference between the 20 game sample and 82 game sample are relatively insignificant.)
With that covered, let’s go bit-by-bit through all of the stats pictured on these cards.
To learn how to read the macro-level WAR stats on the left side of the card, read this explainer I wrote a few months back:
Forward XL Cards
Let’s start with the forward cards. These display 28 different microstats across four broad categories: shooting, passing, entering the offensive zone, and exiting the defensive zone.
Shooting
The first row on the top is dedicated to stats centred around the types of shots a player takes.
Shots: Unblocked shot attempts (also known as Fenwick). A player who ranks highly in this category gets a high quantity of shots.
Chances: Shots that come from the home plate area of the zone between the two faceoff circles, with some judgement calls to eliminate flubbed pucks, rollers, etc.
Off HD Pass: Shots off a high-danger pass, one that came either across the slot or into the slot from behind the net. A player who ranks highly in this category benefits from strong playmaking linemates and might be expected to finish at an especially high rate.
One-Timers: Shots off a one-timer
Deflections: Shots that are deflections of a linemate’s initial shot
In-Zone Shots: Shots off the cycle or forecheck. Players with a high rate of in-zone shots are creating opportunities off of sustained in-zone possession, either through passing (cycle) or forechecking (recovering dump-ins and loose pucks). Most shots come off of in-zone offence.
Rush Shots: Shots off the rush. Players with a high rate of rush shots are creating opportunities with speed immediately off of controlled zone entries. Rush shots are less common but more efficient than in-zone shots.
Passing
The second row is dedicated to stats about the different types of passes a player makes.
Set-Ups: Primary shot assists (passes directly leading to a shot)
Chance Assists: Primary shot assists on scoring chances
High Danger: Cros-slot shot assists + shot assists from behind the net to the slot. These get the goalie moving and open up the net, making the resulting shot much more dangerous. A player who ranks highly in this area might create more goals than an expected goals model would estimate.
Centre Lane: Shot assists from the centre lane of the offensive zone.
Low-High: Shot assists from deep in the zone to players at the point (usually defencemen). Point shots have a very small chance of going in, so getting the puck to the point and looking for deflections is more about generating volume and maintaining possession than anything else.
In-Zone Assists: Shot assists off the cycle or forecheck (i.e. off of in-zone possession as opposed to quick-strike rush chances).
Rush Assists: Shot assists off the rush (i.e. immediately after a controlled zone entry).
Entries
The third row is dedicated to detailing the quantity and types of zone entry plays a player makes in transition.
Entries: The number of times a player entered the offensive zone with the puck (either carrying it in, passing it in, or dumping it in). Indicates a player’s workload in entering the zone.
Entry Success: A player’s rate of success when attempting to enter the offensive zone. On average, a forward will be able to enter the zone in some fashion on 88% of his attempts. Players who are more ambitious with their entries (e.g. trying to go one-on-one instead of dumping it in) might succeed less often.
Possession Rate: The rate with which a player enters the zone with possession (carrying or passing as opposed to dumping the puck in) relative to his total zone entries. On average, a forward will enter with possession about 55% of the time.
Pass Entries: Entries by making a passing play.
Carry Entries: Entries by carrying the puck from the neutral zone into the offensive zone.
Carries + Chances: Carry entries that lead directly to a scoring chance. Helps to differentiate between carry entries where a player gains the zone, heads towards the outside and tries to establish possession (and possibly turns it over) and carry entries that lead to something more immediately dangerous.
Recoveries: Recovered dump-ins (uncontrolled entries). Players who rank highly in this category recover a lot of dumped pucks, extending possessions.
Exits
The fourth row is dedicated to detailing the quantity and type of zone exit plays a player makes in transition.
Exits: The number of times a player exited his defensive zone with the puck, either by carrying it out, passing it out, or dumping it out. Indicates a player’s workload in exiting the zone.
Exit Success: A player’s rate of success while exiting the defensive zone. On average, a forward will exit the zone successfully 87% of the time.
Possession Rate: The rate with which a player exits the zone with possession (carrying or passing as opposed to dumping the puck in) relative to his total zone exits. On average, a forward will exit with possession about 73% of the time.
Pass Exits: Exits by making a passing play.
Carry Exits: Exits by carrying the puck out of the defensive zone.
Retrievals: The number of times a player retrieved a dump-in or loose puck in the defensive zone.
Retrieval Exit %: The rate at which a player successfully turned a retrieval into a zone exit.
With that in mind, let’s revisit the Matthews card and consider what we might take away from it:
Auston Matthews is one of the top offensive players in the league. He’s elite at creating all kinds of shots, whether they’re chances, one-timers, deflections, or rush opportunities. He’s less of a playmaker but still ranks very well at generating scoring chances by passing the puck. He’s not the Leafs’ primary transition leader when he’s on the ice, and rarely starts the break-out. But when he does bring the puck into the offensive zone, he carries it in with possession at a very strong rate and turns those entries into scoring chances at an elite level.
Defence XL Cards
The defence cards show a similar but different set of metrics. The four categories are offence, defence, entries, and exits.
Offence
The first row on the top is dedicated to stats centred around a player’s contributions on offence:
Shots: Unblocked shot attempts (also known as Fenwick). A player who ranks highly in this category gets a high quantity of shots.
Chances: Shots that come from the home plate area of the zone between the two faceoff circles, with some judgement calls to eliminate flubbed pucks, rollers, etc.
In-Zone Shots: Shots and primary shot assists off the cycle or forecheck.
Rush Offence: Shots and primary shot assists off the rush.
Set-Ups: Primary shot assists
Chance Assists: Primary shot assists on scoring chances
OZ Assists: Primary shot assists from the offensive zone (i.e. the defenceman is in the offensive zone when he makes the pass)
Defence
The first row on the top is dedicated to stats centred around a player’s contributions on defence:
Entry Targets: Times in which an opposing player carrying the puck tried to enter the zone against the defenceman in question. A high figure indicates that a player often had opponents try to go one-on-one to gain the zone against them.
Entry Denials: Plays in which the defenceman in question prevented the opposing puck-carrier from entering the zone with possession or by dumping the puck in.
Carry Prevention: The rate at which the defenceman in question prevented the opposing puck-carrier from entering the zone with possession.
Carry w/Chance: The rate at which the defenceman in question prevented the opposing puck-carrier from entering the zone with possession leading to a scoring chance.
Dump-In w/Chance: The rate at which the defenceman in question prevented the opposing puck-carrier from creating a scoring chance by dumping the puck in and retrieving it.
Retrievals: Loose pucks or dump-ins retrieved in the defensive zone
Retrieval Success: The rate at which those loose pucks are retrieved successfully and not turned over.
Entries
The third row is dedicated to detailing the quantity and types of zone entry plays a player makes in transition.
Entries: The number of times a player entered the offensive zone with the puck (either carrying it in, passing it in, or dumping it in). Indicates a player’s workload in entering the zone.
Entry Success: A player’s rate of success when attempting to enter the offensive zone. On average, a forward will be able to enter the zone in some fashion on 88% of his attempts. Players who are more ambitious with their entries (e.g. trying to go one-on-one instead of dumping it in) might succeed less often.
Possession Rate: The rate with which a player enters the zone with possession (carrying or passing as opposed to dumping the puck in) relative to his total zone entries. On average, a forward will enter with possession about 55% of the time.
Pass Entries: Entries by making a passing play.
Carry Entries: Entries by carrying the puck from the neutral zone into the offensive zone.
Carries + Chances: Carry entries that lead directly to a scoring chance. Helps to differentiate between carry entries where a player gains the zone, heads towards the outside and tries to establish possession (and possibly turns it over) and carry entries that lead to something more immediately dangerous.
NZ Assists: Shot assists from the neutral zone.
Exits
The fourth row is dedicated to detailing the quantity and type of zone exit plays a player makes in transition.
Exits: The number of times a player exited his defensive zone with the puck, either by carrying it out, passing it out, or dumping it out. Indicates a player’s workload in exiting the zone.
Possession %: The rate with which a player exits the zone with possession (carrying or passing as opposed to dumping the puck in) relative to his total zone exits. On average, a forward will exit with possession about 73% of the time.
Pass Exits: Exits by making a passing play.
Carry Exits: Exits by carrying the puck out of the defensive zone.
Exit Success: A player’s rate of success while exiting the defensive zone. On average, a forward will exit the zone successfully 87% of the time.
Retrieval Exit %: The rate at which a player successfully turned a retrieval into a zone exit.
DZ Assists: Shot assists from the defensive zone
With that in mind, let’s revisit the Makar card and consider what we might take away from it:
Cale Makar is an exceptional offensive defenceman. Whether it’s on the rush or the cycle, with his shot or his passing, he’s a monster at creating shots and scoring chances. He’s an excellent transition player as well, making crisp passes or carrying the puck through the neutral zone. While he’s not always the one tasked with breaking the puck out of his defensive end, he is remarkably efficient at turning retrievals into exits and moving the puck with possession. Opponents rarely try to go one-on-one with him at the defensive blueline, but when they do he does a good job at preventing entries and chances.
There are more micro-stat visualizations available as well on my Patreon. There’s a microstat player card that focuses entirely on that data, like this example from Kirby Dach:
There are also team-level visualizations.
Here’s the XL Team Card:
And the AllThreeZones Card:
All of these can be accessed on the JFreshHockey Patreon page for $10 per month subscribers. $10 per month subscribers will also receive access to the $5 tier perks such as WAR Player Cards, roster builders, and prospect cards.