Picking the 2022 American Men's Olympic Team Using Analytics

Happy Independence Day! With word this week that we’re a huge step closer to finally seeing some best-on-best hockey, American fans are understandably excited to see their elite young talent come together and compete for a gold medal. To celebrate, I decided to pick a 2022 American Olympic roster using analytics. These included not only Wins Above Replacement (projected out to 2022 using an age curve), but even strength offence and defence Goals Above Replacement, finishing talent (measured in terms of goals above expected), and even microstats from Corey Sznajder and - when available = SportLogiq. This allowed me to choose players who not only are the best available overall but who I think are compatible with one another. To present these stats, I’ll use a visualization that includes the players’ projected 2022 WAR and their percentile ranks in Offence (RAPM isolated impact on on-ice goals for), Defence (RAPM isolated impact on on-ice expected goals against), and shooting.

I can’t emphasize enough: This is not a prediction. There are going to be a lot of articles predicting Team USA in the next few years, and many of them will be pretty identical. I’m taking a different approach, which means I’ll have some different choices (and inevitably some different snubs).

Forwards

Forward Line #1: Auston Matthews is an elite player, and he’s still getting better. He’s got arguably the best release in the league, is elite at handling the puck, and plays the game with speed; on top of that, his defensive game quietly took a big step forward this year. Considering all that, he was a pretty easy choice for first line centre. I chose two wingers for him that should maximize his offensive weapons. Jake Guentzel is an elite forward’s dream linemate, and has played spectacular hockey with both Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin. On top of his top tier finishing talent, he’s a creative and accurate passer who’s demonstrated the ability to think the game at the same speed of the game’s best. He’s a natural left wing but has played the right side before as well. Matthew Tkachuk will be a good fit for these two players, using his strength and playdriving ability to help them keep possession in the offensive zone and drive opponents crazy.

Forward Line #2:  Jack Eichel is a pretty uncontroversial pick for 2nd line centre, and he should thrive surrounded by a bit more talent than he’s used to. The presence of a 35-year-old Patrick Kane might surprise some people given his… controversial analytical profile. Look. Kane is quite possibly the worst defensive player in the NHL - in fact, his 19-20 season was the fourth-worst by a forward since 07-08 by defensive Goals Above Replacement. As a result, his overall positive impact is much smaller than one might expect based on his point totals. Nonetheless, he’s still a dominant offensive force, one of the best passers in the league, and a brilliant transition player. I trust the blueline (which I deliberately loaded with excellent defensive players) to cover up for the less inspiring aspects of his game. Finally, J.T. Miller’s speed, playmaking, and netfront presence would endear him very quickly to Eichel, and would also allow him to move up and down the lineup if changes were necessary.

Forward Line #3: Dylan Larkin is the anchor of Detroit’s only functional line, but will fit in very nicely as a third line centre who can prey on slightly easier matchups. The name of this game for the wingers on this unit is bouncing back; Johnny Gaudreau and Alex DeBrincat put together excellent seasons in 2018-19 but slumped hard this year, and I’m trusting that things will work themselves out again. All three players on this line are absolute burners who can distribute and handle the puck at an elite level, and I can totally see these guys skating circles around the competition. Add in DeBrincat’s finishing talent (hurt by an awfully snakebitten 19-20 season) and this is some deadly depth.

Forward Line #4: As the lines above have shown, the USA have developed a star-studded system of talent. However, their depth at forward still doesn’t approach that of their northern neighbour - not yet, at least. With that in mind, I decided to put together a line that would be an absolute pain in the ass to play against. Brady Tkachuk has already established himself as one of league’s best net-front players, leading the league in individual expected goals this season. I know Blake Coleman is a surprising pick. But he really was a revelation this year, elite defensively and one of the best penalty killers in the league. Do I think he’s a better overall player than the RW on the taxi squad? No, I don’t. But I think he’d be more effective on this type of line. Finally, that Brock Nelson is here more is more a reflection of the Americans’ unimpressive centre talent than anything else, but he’s a perfectly capable top six forward.

Taxi Squad: I wanted to give the USA some flexibility on their reserve squad. Kyle Connor would be ready to step in if the team was having trouble scoring goals, potentially subbing into Miller’s spot with Eichel and Kane; Charlie Coyle could slide into the bottom six and provide a defensive conscience to solidify the fourth line if need be; and Brock Boeser has the skill and scoring talent to shore up any of the top three lines (even if his scoring has taken a step back due to wrist injuries).

Defence

So the forward group - not too controversial for the most part. This is where I start to really piss people off. There are many American defencemen who are generally considered to be elite and who will be locks to appear on the real 2022 team. But this isn’t a prediction. I also made a deliberate decision based on the strengths and weaknesses of the forward group; when I picked Team Canada, the elite two-way play of many of their star forwards gave me the confidence to pick some offence-only guys like Morgan Rielly. As you might have noticed, that’s not the case here. I also went young, picking some guys who are already incredible but should be even better by 2022. As a result, there are some notable snubs.

Defence Pair #1: You want a dominant defensive pair to play big minutes against teams like Canada and Russia? These are your guys. While Jaccob Slavin’s defensive numbers have dipped in the past two seasons, he’s an elite stickchecker and among the league’s best players in the league at denying opponents the blueline, indicating that his gap control is suffocating. Charlie McAvoy, who was my Norris pick due to his unmatched combination of elite defensive play and offensive contribution, is used to thriving in tough minutes, and his skills at breaking the puck out, defending his line, and suppressing quality scoring chances will be put to good use against the McDavids and Kucherovs of the world.

Defence Pair #2: Okay, okay. I can already hear you turning on me. Heres the thing. I cannot emphasize enough just how good Adam Fox was this season. He didn’t get very much hype, in part because unlike Hughes and Makar he didn’t start the year in a huge role (as you might expect). But he earned one as the year went on with absolutely absurd numbers. Even his microstats are elite - he was one of the best breakout passers in the league and one of the best at denying zone entries. I’ve paired him with Quinn Hughes, who also had an excellent rookie year, establishing himself as a superb playmaking defenceman who’s amazing in transition and one of the most active blueliners in the league in the offensive zone cycle. These two should only get better in the next two seasons, and would be exciting to watch together.

Defence Pair #3: John Marino, the third 2019-20 rookie on this roster, isn’t the most flashy player in the league; he’s a nice skater, solid passer, but he’s not going to blow you away with his offensive play. But it’s somehow not an exaggeration to say that he stepped into the NHL this season and immediately established himself as one of the best defensive defencemen in the game. Simply put, when Marino is on the ice, his goalie is going to be bored out of his mind. Torey Krug, a well-rounded offensive player who’s comfortable with the puck on his stick and not a liability in his own end is a good fit here and would be a key powerplay contributor.

Taxi Squad: Both of these guys will be on the 2022 team. But this isn’t a prediction. As I said, I went heavy on two-way defencemen to cover up some of the deficiencies of the forwards, which meant that all-offence guys like Zach Werenski and John Carlson didn’t make the cut. But if this team for whatever reason is having trouble scoring, I still want these guys in the wings ready to go. And before you clown on me for not having Seth Jones (who of course will also be on the real team), you can read why I’m not super high on him here if you like.

Goaltending

Goaltending Tandem: I don’t think this will be too controversial. Connor Hellebuyck was the league’s best goalie this year, has been great in the past, and is still pretty young. John Gibson was the league’s best the year previous, and will still be under 30 when 2022 rolls around. The Americans are loaded in goal, and could even bring Ben Bishop in as the third string if they wanted to flaunt the amazing talent they have at their disposal in net.

Conclusion

The 2022 Olympics will be a huge opportunity for the Americans to challenge Canada’s best-on-best supremacy and demonstrate the strides their hockey program has made in the past decade. Their depth at forward still can’t approach their rival’s, but with a stable of elite young defencemen and a massive advantage in net they could make things very interesting in the medal round. This roster would combine dynamic offensive talent and scoring with suffocating defence, giving them the chance to dominate possession and adapt to different circumstances. It’s not hard to imagine this group coming together and winning a gold medal.