Trade Analysis: Domi for Anderson

Breaking down the Montréal/Columbus trade using analytics.

Who Did the Canadiens Get?

Josh Anderson is a solid second-line winger who uses his speed and strength to terrorize opponents on the forecheck. He loves to shoot the puck, and backs up his strong scoring chance generation with above-average defensive play. He’s an asset on the penalty kill as well. He’s kind of the opposite of Max Domi - he’s a big shoot-first forechecker who’s competent in his own end but rarely makes plays by passing the puck.

If his results seem all over the place, that’s because he’s coming off a season of unbelievably bad puck luck. In his injury-shortened season, he scored one goal on four expected goals and the Jackets shot a measly 5.9% with him on the ice. Despite this, his scoring chance driving remained quite strong, and he’s been consistent in that area throughout the past three seasons. As a result. I think the expected goals for and against numbers probably tell a fairer story about his impact than the goal numbers do. If that 8th percentile finishing category looks like more of what the Habs already have, the good news is that he was an above-average finisher in the four previous seasons, so assuming that his shoulder problems don’t linger he shouldn’t be an issue there.

Checking out his microstats from his last full season in 2018-19 courtesy of Corey Sznajder, his play style is apparent:

One area in which Anderson could improve the Habs is their forecheck. They ranked near the bottom of the league in terms of retrieving their dumped pucks, and Anderson could be a big help in that regard. He also uses his speed and physicality to put pressure on opposing defenders when they try to break out the puck, something the Canadiens’ forwards don’t do particularly often. This has downstream positive impacts on defence which could be a big benefit.

Overall, if Anderson can fully recover from his shoulder injury and play like the guy he was in 2018-19, he could be a major piece for the Canadiens. He represents a downgrade offensively from Domi, but he makes up for it with his defensive competence. While size and strength can be overrated, he actually uses those attributes productively; he reminds me a lot of Craig Smith in terms of his ability to create offence by shooting the puck from dangerous areas, and if the Habs’ young centres develop into the strong playmakers they’re supposed to he could be a real weapon in the top six.

Who did the Blue Jackets Get?

Max Domi’s skillset is evident and consistently apparent: he is an exceptional creator of offence at even strength by virtue of his unbelievable talent as a playmaker and puck-carrier in transition. Both his passing microstats and his primary assist totals are elite despite playing for a team that typically struggles to finish their chances, and the fact that he’s been a better goal driver than a scoring chance driver in the past three seasons is especially remarkable considering he plays for the Canadiens. His style of play causes problems on the defensive side of the puck, a tough pill to swallow considering that he is best deployed as a centre; John Tortorella will have his hands full trying to instill more concientiousness in Domi.

Here’s how Domi’s passing numbers rank in the past three seasons in terms of percentiles (again per Sznajder):

Those high-danger pass numbers are especially excellent, and Columbus’ top six didn’t have anyone even close to as good as him in that regard. That’s not to say that he never shoots the puck; he actually does it a lot, and he’s a pretty great goal scorer as well. Domi’s transition play is also great, although the Jackets are quite a bit more conservative in terms of allowing their forwards to lead zone exits than the Habs are so his numbers could decline in that area.

Other than his defensive issues, the only thing Domi really lacks is the powerplay results to pump up those point totals. Given his playmaking ability it seems odd that this would be the case, but I think the main culprit is most likely the Habs’ “get the puck to Weber for a low-percentage bomb from the point” system rather than his own deficiencies.

Verdict

Both of these players are talented and I could see them each having majorly positive impacts on their new teams. They bring very different skillsets to the table, and have glaring gaps in their games that prevent them from being near the league’s elite, but I can see a scenario in which both teams are happy with the results of this deal.

Josh Anderson is a kind of player that doesn’t often get traded, a speedy scorer who uses his size effectively and has proven scoring pedigree. He projects to be an effective complementary second line player who can create shots and goals while being a presence on the forecheck. I don’t know if he has the finishing ability to fill the Canadiens’ biggest need, and he certainly doesn’t look to be a factor on the powerplay, but if he can play at his pre-shoulder injury level at even strength while chipping in on the penalty kill he can be a real contributor. Depending on the two players’ contracts I would consider this an overpay for the Habs, since Anderson theoretically should have been a buy-low project, but he’s definitely not just a big dumb grit guy.

Max Domi’s reliability and even strength production is very appealing, and it still confuses me that the Canadiens chose to bury him on the fourth line in the playoffs. Few players in the league possess the level of passing ability that he does, and his high-end puck skills are something that the Jackets’ limited forward group desperately needed. To get a player of this calibre in exchange for a guy who was likely to be in the bottom six moving forward is a major win for Jarmo Kekäläinen. The 3rd round pick is icing on the cake. If Domi can even marginally improve his defensive play and improve the Jacket’s powerplay he has a high ceiling and could become a consistent 60-70 point player for them.

(Photoshopped player portraits from @NHLPortrait on Twitter)