What Happened to Taylor Hall this Season?
Breaking down what went wrong and what it means moving forward.
It wouldn’t be controversial to say that Taylor Hall had a disappointing season. The former MVP was primed for a contract year bump but stumbled out of the gate and finished with point totals unbefitting a player seeking a double-digit salary on a long-term deal. Combined with his troubling injury history and an unexpectedly tight cap environment, this was pretty awful timing. Per Elliotte Friedman, Hall might now be forced to maximize his future earnings by taking a one-year contract, a pretty unheard-of move for a top free agent in his prime who isn’t explicitly Cup chasing.
Hall’s drop-off this season is evident on the stat sheet, as his 0.8 points per game represented his lowest total in three seasons and his 0.25 goals per game was a career-low. But it goes a lot deeper than that. His Wins Above Replacement, a metric which measures a player’s isolated on-ice impact and translates it into an estimate of wins individually contributed to his team, tells a big part of the story here:
In his two previous seasons, Hall played like a superstar comparable to guys like Claude Giroux, John Tavares, and Steven Stamkos. Had he kept up that level of play, he almost certainly would be looking at a massive long-term deal. But a shockingly sub-replacement start in New Jersey followed by merely top six-calibre numbers in the desert raise serious questions about his performance moving forward.
What Happened?
To get a proper sense of what happened to Taylor Hall’s play this season you have to distinguish between his time with the Devils and his time with the Coyotes. Simply put, Hall’s final thirty games in New Jersey were catastrophic. Decent powerplay production conceals it on his point totals, but at 5v5 the former MVP was a liability at both ends of the ice and played the game differently than he did in the previous two seasons.
The WAR numbers above give an indication of his overall impact with the Devils this season, but to address the “how” question we need to dig into his microstats. These are manually-tracked stats compiled by Corey Sznajder, who’s built a database containing four seasons worth of information not publicly available anywhere else. I’ve taken these numbers and created a visualization that collects some of the most relevant stats and shows how a player ranks compared to other players at his position. Here’s Taylor Hall’s card from the 2018-19 season:
At a glance, you can see that Hall was elite when it comes to generating shots, entering the offensive zone with possession of the puck, and putting pressure on opposing defencemen on the forcheck. He also frequently exited the defensive end with the puck on his stick, created chances through his passing, and recovered pucks that were dumped in. The snapshot above shows a player who uses his speed and puck skills to generate offence, keep plays alive, and make life difficult for opponents.
I want to focus on the forechecking category in particular. Very few star players rank near the top end of the league in those stats because the job is often delegated to guys who aren’t necessarily the most gifted players on their lines. Watching a few of Hall’s games from the 2018-19 season, I appreciated just how tenacious Hall was without the puck. Here’s three small plays from a 2018 game against Toronto, each coming at the end of a long shift:
Hall’s willingness to do some dirty work kept possession alive and allowed him to create chances for his teammates. Now let’s take a look at his 2019-20 results specifically with the Devils:
While Hall remained a terror in transition, his offensive zone play collapsed. Overnight, he went from one of the league’s most dogged puck hounds to a player who rarely forced opposing defencemen to deal with his speed without the puck on his stick. This coincides with two potential motivating factors that would impact a player’s ability and ferocity on the forecheck: arthroscopic knee surgery in spring 2019 and a looming UFA payday that could be slashed enormously by a reaggravation of that injury. Add in that he is playing for a bad team and dealing with horrible shooting luck and I can’t imagine things were very fun for him. Watching game tape of Hall from this season is night and day from a year before - when he does pursue the puck, he does not often come up with it, and even the smallest bit of pressure prompts him to make awful decisions.
In December, Hall was traded to the Arizona Coyotes, a franchise in desperate need of some offensive talent to push them into the playoffs in a weak Pacific Division. For the most part, he returned to form. Below is a graph that shows a timeline of Hall’s isolated impact on scoring chances for and against - with his 2019-20 season split into the two teams.
As you can see, his offensive playdriving perked up back to normal while his defence regained some lost ground. Let’s return again to those microstats:
A lot better. Hall was not the first man chasing down dumped pucks in Arizona either (Christian Dvorak and Conor Garland split that responsibility), but when it came to pressuring opposing defencemen and screwing with their breakout passes he was mostly back to his old self. His game also improved in other areas, as his shot contributions skyrocketed and his giveaways dropped. His cycle pass assists and high danger pass numbers went from mediocre back to elite, suggesting that he re-emerged as a top playmaker. This increase in offensive zone possession also paid dividends in terms of limiting Hall’s negative defensive impact, although it was still lower than in the past.
Overall, Hall proved in the second half of the season that his injuries did not make him washed up or a shell of his former self. While he did take on a slightly different role with Arizona, no longer tasked with being his line’s primary puck retriever, he was able to settle into a familiar cycle-heavy game, renew his commitment to forechecking, and generate scoring chances at an elite level. That didn’t translate to big point totals, in part because of a dysfunctional powerplay, but all signs are positive in terms of an approximate return to form.
What to Expect from Taylor Hall
One of the most uncertain questions in free agency this season is what teams can expect to get from Hall if they sign him to a longterm contract. As I’ve said, based on his time in Arizona I believe that reports of his demise have been greatly exaggerated, but of course any big money UFA deal is a serious risk. Teams should be aware of what Hall is and isn’t capable of, and use that knowledge to determine whether he’s a systemic fit who addresses their needs.
1. Don’t Bet on a Lot of Goals
One thing that surprises some people about Hall is that he really is not a scorer. In fact, he’s generally been one of the worst finishers in the NHL; he scored below expectations (based on the quantity and quality of his scoring chances) in four of the past five seasons - the exception being his MVP campaign in which he out of nowhere exploded for 39 goals.
2. Let Him Work the Cycle
When you think of Taylor Hall you probably think of blazing speed off the rush, but at his best Hall is a monster when it comes to generating offence off of lengthy puck possessions. To fully take advantage of his willingness to get into dirty areas and put his playmaking ability to good use, an acquiring team should surround him with players who can work off the of the cycle, retrieve pucks, and finish high danger chances. This extends to the powerplay as well, where prior to this season he put up excellent results. This is one reason why I’m not as pessimistic about Hall’s aging as I otherwise would be about a guy who plays with such speed. His work off the rush and in transition is exceptional, but he is by no means solely reliant on it. With the right work put in I could see him aging gracefully even as he loses a step in his thirties.
3. Don’t Be Afraid to Cast Him as a Puck Retriever
Hall’s excellent zone entry and exit numbers make it clear that he thrives with the puck on his stick in transition. But that doesn’t mean you have to run the offence through him entirely - in the MVP season, his centre Nico Hischier led the rush extremely frequently as well. The most important thing is to make sure that he’s fully engaged without the puck on his stick and willing/able to use his talents to get it back.
Teams should do their due dilligence when it comes to determining the extent to which physical attributes and coaching played a role in limiting his puck retrievals this season. If his knee injury has had an impact on either his speed or his willingness to race into the corners to grab dump-ins, that’s a cause for some concern and should affect his deployment. On the other hand, if Tocchet simply told Christian Dvorak and Conor Garland to get pucks for the team’s new star then that’s not something that can be pinned on Hall. If I’m paying big money for Hall I need to be confident that he’s not going to be hesitant when it comes to recovering the puck as it’s such an important part of his game.
Conclusion
If Hall is willing to take a short-term deal to rebuild his value, then that could be a win-win situation for both team and player. His performance in Arizona made it clear that he’s got plenty left on the tank, and if he goes to a contender like the Colorado Avalanche (where he would be a great fit with either Nathan MacKinnon or Nazem Kadri) it wouldn’t surprise me at all to see him put up at least a more prolific season that he just did. But there’s still a considerable amount of risk in that plan - what if he gets hurt again? What if he gets bad puck luck and stalls out at 60 points? What if he legitimately declines? What if he plays injury-averse hockey that limits his effectiveness?
It’s pretty evident that Hall’s 2017-18 season was a once-in-a-career masterpiece that he’s never going to replicate. Paying him MVP money would almost certainly be a mistake, and I highly doubt anybody is going to make that error at this point. But his second half suggests that he’s still a star player, and I would be intruiged to see a team recognize that and make a push to bring him in long-term. The Carolina Hurricanes strike me as a perfect fit for him: they have a top six left wing spot open and play a heavily cycle-oriented game that I think he could thrive in. Trocheck and Necas might not be the sexiest names out there, but their skillsets are very complementary with his. Acquiring Hall could elevate them into the top tier of Cup contenders.
Overall, a closer look indicates that panic over Hall’s pronounced decline is mostly unwarranted. While there are aspects of his game that could be strengthened to help him fully return to form, he still projects as one of the league’s top left wings and should make a major positive difference for whatever team gives him a chance.