Who Are You Calling Unqualified?!

Breaking down the best players who didn't receive a qualifying offer.

There’s a reason that the winners of the July 1st (or uh October 9th) free agent frenzy tend to be the teams that turned off their phones and sent everyone home for summer vacation early. By the time players hit the open market they’re usually either past their prime or almost there, making longterm deals a recipe for catastrophe. So when useful players who are below 27 and would otherwise be restricted free agents do not receive a qualifying offer from their teams, it’s an opportunity to get a really nice deal on a depth player - why pay a marquee 30 year old free agent $4M to play on your third line when you could get an equally good 25 year old for a quarter of that?

This offseason’s unique circumstances have led to some really unexpected names ending up as UFAs, so I thought it would be worthwhile to go over them and figure out who could be a nice pickup for a smart team using stats like EvolvingWild’s RAPM isolates. As my previous attempt to Moneyball a team based on single-season WAR indicates, a single-season sample in limited minutes can lead you to look silly in retrospect, so I chose players who have played relatively consistently strong hockey in the past few seasons.

Some of these players are probably going to receive extensions from their current teams in the next few days, as I’m pretty sure most of these decisions are born from a fear of arbitration rather than disinterest in the players themselves. That being said, many of these guys will have the ability to head to the market and potentially receive more than they otherwise would, so I hope they take advantage of this situation.

Not Really Interested

• Anthony Duclair is a really great scorer and his offensive game has gotten better every year. But man, he is an absolute liability defensively. Maybe a team with a major need for finishing and French Canadian players could use him *cough*

• Dominik Simon was primed for permanent analytical darling status after his puck retrieval boosted Sidney Crosby’s Hart-worthy 2019 season, but he completely crashed this year in a bottom six role. Worth a flier but I’m not sure he really fits as a depth player.

• Fredrik Gauthier is better than you probably think (he’s actually pretty solid defensively) but his role has been tiny and he’s awful on the penalty kill. As a 13th forward he could do but I wouldn’t cast him as an every day player.

• Andreas Athanasiou has offensive talent - there’s no doubt about it. But like Duclair, his lack of defensive ability or commitment is glaring. He’s a pure run and gun player, which is why he’s got such nice transition numbers, but he gives up way more than he generates. Hard to imagine how he could change his game in a way that tightens up on D while preserving his transition-based attack. Add in the 30 goal pedigree and that’s not a contract I want any part of.

• Travis Boyd has done nothing wrong but annoys me because his insane on-ice shooting luck has juiced his Wins Above Replacement to hilarious levels. Probably an okay depth player but his WAR rates mess with my spreadsheets, which is unconscionable.

Slater Koekkoek - LD, Chicago Blackhawks

The former top ten “bust” for the Lightning has gotten better and better in the past three seasons, culminating in a campaign in which he was arguably (and shockingly) the Blackhawks’ most reliable defenceman. Like all of these players, he’s used to bottom pairing minutes and matchups, but he profiles as the best young defenceman on the open market by a sizeable margin. I have no idea why the Hawks are letting him go, but their loss should be someone else’s reward.

Matt Benning - RD, Edmonton Oilers

Need a cheap two-way right handed defenceman? Benning has been a consistently solid player who can pull his weight at both ends of the ice, putting up top four results in limited minutes. He’s probably not a guy you could trust to anchor a second pair, but it would be worth seeing if he can succeed in spot duty. Either way, Benning should be a cheap option in a position that tends to be pricey.

Troy Stecher - RD, Vancouver Canucks

Do you like Matt Benning but wish he was a little worse offensively and a little better on the penalty kill? Troy Stecher is the guy for you. He profiles pretty much the same as Benning in terms of his success in a pretty sheltered bottom-pairing role, is the same age, and also shoots right. If you have a spot for a youngish #5, flip a coin between them and you’ll likely be happy with either.

Mirco Mueller - LD, New Jersey Devils

Mueller’s coming off a hideous season, it’s true. He was one of the league’s worst defencemen this year, and there’s no sugarcoating that. But in ‘18 and ‘19 he was actually a really nice shot suppressor despite glaring offensive limitations. Worth a shot at league minimum? I think so, although he does seem like a classic case of “heads off to the DEL and we never hear from him again except when he pops up as a free agent in NHL 23 franchise mode.”

Vinnie Hinostroza - LW, Arizona Coyotes

Hinostroza has given the Coyotes perfectly fine middle-six play in his tenure with the team, which appears to have come to an end due to the team’s inexplicable cap crunch. He’s a very strong playdriver at both ends of the ice, with particularly good offensive scoring chance impacts - the issue is that with Hinostroza the expected goals consistently don’t turn into actual goals. Not too sure what the reason for that is considering that his own personal finishing, while poor, isn’t enough to explain it, but even so he’s still a very effective player. He’s projected to receive around $2.6M on a three year deal, although that number might be lower given present circumstances.

Dominik Kahun - RW, Buffalo Sabres

I would be kind of surprised to see Kahun actually hit the market, as word is that Buffalo is working to try to get an extension done before Friday. But I can totally see why the Sabres were hesitant to get stuck in arbitration with this guy. He scored at a 45 point pace this season, in large part due to some absolutely insane puck luck - he got 12 goals on 6.7 expected goals and an on-ice shooting percentage of 11.2%, neither of which is presumably sustainable. Nonetheless, I like him a lot as a two-way middle six forward and if he does end up as a UFA the team that ends up with him should be very happy with themselves.

Mark Jankowski - C, Calgary Flames

Jankowski is on the opposite end of the PDO chart compared to Kahun. His 94.9 PDO, caused mostly by a hilarious 4.6% on-ice shooting percentage, completely smoked his value in the eyes of most Flames fans, many of whom were determined that it was actually his fault and not just bad puck luck. Looking at his body of work in the past two seasons, what’s pretty clear is that Jankowski is an all-defence depth centre who’s equally capable at even strength and on the penalty kill. While his overall impact is unremarkable, there’s value in a guy who you can end out on the ice and be sure that nothing at all will happen for 40 seconds or so. At presumably close to league minimum there are plenty of teams who could do a lot worse for a fourth line centre.

Lucas Wallmark - C, Florida Panthers

Another low-PDO king. Wallmark’s totals (and Wins Above Replacement) are submarined by awful puck luck in 18-19, but there’s a lot to like in his defensive play and play-driving numbers as a whole at even strength. He’s been heavily sheltered and shouldn’t be played above a bottom six role, but his shot suppression impacts alone are reason for a team to bring him on board for cheap.

Nick Cousins - LW, Vegas Golden Knights

Maybe the safest bet on the board is Nick Cousins, an extremely strong two-way bottom six forward who’s put up great results in each of the past two seasons. His defensive impact is excellent, and while he doesn’t have the skillset to move up the lineup there are few guys who will give a team more value on a third line than him. Like Hinostroza, he’ll probably cost a little bit more than a usual unqualified RFA (maybe in the $2.5M range), but there’s every reason to believe that he’ll continue to perform well.