Really enjoyed your PDO article! I was wondering about players who sustain high shooting percentages in defiance of regression - at what point does it become possible to say with confidence that this outperformance is due to skill rather than luck, and that it's ~repeatable in following years? Like with McDavid shooting above 15% in four of his five seasons in the NHL
Is there a way to calculate the error / confidence interval with Patrick Bacon's model? I know it was impossible with EvolvingWild because of how that's calculated. Just would be interesting to look at 2 players, one worth 2.0±0.2 WAR and another worth 2.0±2.0 WAR.
Hello. I see that most analytical models project the capitals to take a significant step back from last year, even though it feels like they've improved in the areas that they struggled last year. Is it because of the age? Or is it something else im missing about the offseason
I wanna know what the fuck the Preds are doing. We didn't add any big FAs for a playoff push but we didn't trade anyone away for draft picks either. Hell, we traded AWAY draft picks for a bottom sixer. I liked the Askarov pick but where is this franchise going??
Could Mcdavid or MacKinnon average over 2 pts per game this season? Weaker opponents, strong supporting teammates. Seems a bit crazy, but perhaps worth some consideration.
One more (series of) question(s) - what are your thoughts on analytics in prospect evaluation? I think there is obvious value, but only when hedged with not just the eye test, but projection moving forward, which is something I haven't really seen from the big names. Your analysis of Drew Doughty, while not re: a prospect, was a masterclass in combining all three elements.
How much weight would you give analytics in prospect evaluation? Are you aware of anyone who you feel does this particularly well? Do you believe there is a way to build projection into a model with any degree of sophistication beyond simple production translation rates?
Hey there, I'm just a college student English major who quite likes statistics so I wanted to say the work you do is really educational in terms of the nature of predictive statistics. I spend an ungodly amount of time looking at the resources you put out and I feel like my understanding of probability and hockey have both dramatically I proved because of your hard work. So thank you for that! Also, I was wonder who are players that, in your experience, are the best at creating doubt in most predictive models. Players like Patrick Kane and Ovi, from what I've seen, generally don't fair too well in analytics circles relative to their perceived legacy. Do you think they actually bring more value than the models show or are they overhyped by the public? And if they are just overhyped, who do you feel is commonly undervalued by your data and that of your peers?
May you please rank the Sens cast of misfit impending UFAs (Coburn, Gudbranson, Paquette, Stepan, Galchenyuk, Anisimov, Reilly) in terms of how much interest you believe there will be at the deadline, and in terms of how much interest you would have (in a vacuum)?
Ask Me Anything About the 2020-21 Season (January 12)
in honor of the penguins playing AGAINST jack johnson again instead of WITH jack johnson, which players would make your 2021 worst rated all-NHL team?
What do you think of Alexander volkov? Does he take kucherovs RW spot in the top 6?
Really enjoyed your PDO article! I was wondering about players who sustain high shooting percentages in defiance of regression - at what point does it become possible to say with confidence that this outperformance is due to skill rather than luck, and that it's ~repeatable in following years? Like with McDavid shooting above 15% in four of his five seasons in the NHL
How do the Florida panthers look after losing Dadanov and Hoffman while making a handful of big depth tweaks
Is there a way to calculate the error / confidence interval with Patrick Bacon's model? I know it was impossible with EvolvingWild because of how that's calculated. Just would be interesting to look at 2 players, one worth 2.0±0.2 WAR and another worth 2.0±2.0 WAR.
What couple teams do you think will benefit from the new divisions? What cpl teams does it hurt the most?
Hello. I see that most analytical models project the capitals to take a significant step back from last year, even though it feels like they've improved in the areas that they struggled last year. Is it because of the age? Or is it something else im missing about the offseason
I wanna know what the fuck the Preds are doing. We didn't add any big FAs for a playoff push but we didn't trade anyone away for draft picks either. Hell, we traded AWAY draft picks for a bottom sixer. I liked the Askarov pick but where is this franchise going??
Could Mcdavid or MacKinnon average over 2 pts per game this season? Weaker opponents, strong supporting teammates. Seems a bit crazy, but perhaps worth some consideration.
What is Fiala's ceiling? Will he keep producing like late last year?
Is there anything under the hood that suggests Pavel Zacha might have a breakout year? Or is he what he is at this point? Thanks.
One more (series of) question(s) - what are your thoughts on analytics in prospect evaluation? I think there is obvious value, but only when hedged with not just the eye test, but projection moving forward, which is something I haven't really seen from the big names. Your analysis of Drew Doughty, while not re: a prospect, was a masterclass in combining all three elements.
How much weight would you give analytics in prospect evaluation? Are you aware of anyone who you feel does this particularly well? Do you believe there is a way to build projection into a model with any degree of sophistication beyond simple production translation rates?
Hey there, I'm just a college student English major who quite likes statistics so I wanted to say the work you do is really educational in terms of the nature of predictive statistics. I spend an ungodly amount of time looking at the resources you put out and I feel like my understanding of probability and hockey have both dramatically I proved because of your hard work. So thank you for that! Also, I was wonder who are players that, in your experience, are the best at creating doubt in most predictive models. Players like Patrick Kane and Ovi, from what I've seen, generally don't fair too well in analytics circles relative to their perceived legacy. Do you think they actually bring more value than the models show or are they overhyped by the public? And if they are just overhyped, who do you feel is commonly undervalued by your data and that of your peers?
Of the Penguins' offseason additions, which are you most confident in having positive results?
I have one more. Which front offices in the NHL do you think are the most analytically driven?
Do you see sorokin overtaking varlamov as the isles starter? Also, what is sorokin ceiling in the NHL?
May you please rank the Sens cast of misfit impending UFAs (Coburn, Gudbranson, Paquette, Stepan, Galchenyuk, Anisimov, Reilly) in terms of how much interest you believe there will be at the deadline, and in terms of how much interest you would have (in a vacuum)?
Top three players that you would have claimed in waivers
Who’s ur pick to go all the way, and who’s the media underrating/overrating
Does Pettersson firmly establish himself as a top 5 Forward/Player in the game
who are good sleepers for fantasy
Do you think that the Penguins' bottom-six is good enough to make the playoffs?