Trying out something new here. If you’ve got a short question (preferably hockey-based) that you think I could answer or give my opinion on without having to write a 2500 word deep-dive about it, this is the place for it.
Hard to tell because of the lack of Sid's 06 and 07 WAR numbers and his injuries. From 20 to 22 years old, McDavid was better offensively and on the PP, while Crosby was much better defensively (although still not good by any means). Sid has the WAR/60 edge. But if we can see the best of McDavid without concussions getting in the way I think he definitely has the ability to surpass Sid.
Can't give you top 5s off the top of my head, but I think Doughty and Jones are overrated overall, while Ovechkin's non-shooting and Barkov's defence are overrated. Bjorkstrand and Weegar are two very underrated players who play decent minutes.
Who's the best shutdown/defensive player in the league this year, regardless of position only qualifications is they play the best defense, I don't care about deployment or whether they play the PK or not
From following Micah and Dom on Twitter and reading their stuff. In terms of getting my head around it, it helped to find some friends who were familiar with it and could help me out when there were things I didn't quite get.
Did Jake Virtanen actually get better this year or is he due a regression?
Virtanen had a higher IPP and Sh% over his career norms. However, he also was 4th in the league in hitting the post/crossbar. And 4th on the Canucks in xGAR and was easily the Canucks 3rd best player in 5v5. Virtanen had the 3rd most goals and primary points among Canucks forwards, all while playing Top 9 F minutes.
I wouldn't say due for regression considering that his on-ice xGF driving was much better than his GF driving. At the same time though he was still very poor defensively. I'd say he's an okay third line RW.
Ok I’ve got another question. Was there a team in recent history that won the cup that didn’t have great underlying numbers throughout the playoffs? Or they won rounds where they were outplayed by their opponents (analytically)? A team that comes to mind are the 2017 Penguins (who got completely outplayed in game 1 of the SCF that year by the Preds but still won the game) or even maybe the 2015 Blackhawks, who basically played only 3 (maybe 4 if you count Oduya) defensemen after the sweep against the Wild.
Pens in 2017 got extremely lucky. Sharks last year had a 45% xGF%. Habs had a 40% xGF% against the Caps in 2010. If you have the goalie/shooting you can beat the odds.
What do Kirby Dach’s underlying numbers indicate? Of the top 3 picks in the draft, I’d say he had the best rookie season. I hope he turns into our 1C within the next 3 or 4 years.
He definitely had the best rookie season of the top 3 but tbf Hughes and Kakko had two of the worst rookie seasons ever from top 3 picks. I'm not a prospect guy but he seems to have brought a bit of value to the table this year.
I think there's a very good chance that Vancouver could take a step back next year. Powerplay was crazy this year, Edler+Tanev getting older, Horvat declining, questions in goal, etc. They'd need Hughes to take the next step to actually being one of the best defencemen in the league and for Boeser to get his scoring touch back to improve IMO.
As for Arizona, I guess goaltending could help them out (and the Pacific will be weak) but their ceiling is pretty damn low.
My thought also on Vancouver, 1. You sign Markstrom long term that's real $ into the cap which will hurt when Pete/Hughes get 7+ mil contracts each ALSO probably losing Demko in the draft which could hurt long-term. My thoughts on Arizona, think they got lucky this year personally. Don't think Hall signs and think there offense will dry up. If I was a betting man, I'd say Van more likely to advance and be unprotected next year over AZ bc they are simply favorites this year and don't think AZ can beat NSH
Dug into his numbers here. He's a good player but I'm lower on him than many analytics-minded folks. All about the price tag but I'd be skeptical paying him above 5M for what he brings.
I agree with all that. I’ve heard strome is due for regression, Deangelo is a must-keep, and georgiev would be a great backup, so keep him if possible. Thx for the response 🙏
Would you rather pay Jack Johnson 1 million for 5 year to be Pittsburgh's #1 defenseman (based off most minutes and toughest competition) or give him 8 million for 5 years to be Pittsburgh's 6th defenseman?
Theodore's tricky because his numbers are obviously incredible but two things worry me:
1. His on-ice GF RAPM numbers have not increased despite his xGF numbers getting elite
2. He is hilariously sheltered for a guy who plays 22 minutes a night.
These are things that generally would not worry me about a defenceman in moderation, but they give me pause. I can't really make heads or tails of him despite my instinct being to put him in that top category. Would be worth looking into in detail when the offseason hits.
8th seems about right. But he does seem to be a better centre than a winger so the Oil give him the chance to do that fulltime next season he could leapfrog some guys.
Matthews is a better offensive playdriver and significantly better defensively. Drai's a slightly better shooter and has better GF numbers (but plays with #97 a decent amount). I take Matthews by a hair.
Assuming you mean 2018, yes. Although you could theoretically say that Couturier was almost as valuable that year which could throw a wrench in it depending on your definition of Hart.
how do you feel about the strategy of an analytics based team, like the leafs, with their current use of cap space? if you were kyle dubas what would you do differently when it comes to roster construction, if anything at all?
I think the strategy of going all-in on the core at top dollar was probably not the way to go, because I'm not sure how much confidence I have in that core (especially Tavares moving forward). I like their system in terms of doing the Penguins thing of turning out ELC bottom sixers as a solid clip though.
In terms of roster construction I think doing the opposite of whatever the hell happened with Tyson Barrie would be the right call. I think building the Leafs to be all-offence squad is not a winning strategy. I wonder if similar problems to Arizona popped up. If Rielly is the #1D they absolutely need to get a defensively sound partner for him yesterday. At the same time if Rielly costs over $9M I'm not sure if they'll be able to recover from that.
Probably not. He'd be right near the top in terms of best offensive wingers, but it's hard to overstate just how poor his defence is. I do think that some stats people sell his offence short because of his meh xGF driving, when there's clearly something about his passing ability which leads to him consistently outperforming it.
I know defense is important, but he often outscores his defensive deficiencies. Obviously, that doesn’t excuse his lack of defensive effort, but does it make it better I guess you could say for the Hawks?
Yes, although I would also caution that a good chunk of that "outscoring" is because of Corey Crawford. But he's pretty easily a positive impact player IMO.
Is McDavid projecting to have a better career than Crosby?
Hard to tell because of the lack of Sid's 06 and 07 WAR numbers and his injuries. From 20 to 22 years old, McDavid was better offensively and on the PP, while Crosby was much better defensively (although still not good by any means). Sid has the WAR/60 edge. But if we can see the best of McDavid without concussions getting in the way I think he definitely has the ability to surpass Sid.
Who are your current Top 5 most underrated and overrated players in the NHL.
Can't give you top 5s off the top of my head, but I think Doughty and Jones are overrated overall, while Ovechkin's non-shooting and Barkov's defence are overrated. Bjorkstrand and Weegar are two very underrated players who play decent minutes.
Where do Svech, Aho, and Tervainen rank as a top line?
Who's the best shutdown/defensive player in the league this year, regardless of position only qualifications is they play the best defense, I don't care about deployment or whether they play the PK or not
Jonas Brodin
Why?
Do you think the stagnated cap ceiling for the next several years will lead to a return of the RFA bridge deal?
Sounds about right
How did you get into analytics and how did you learn it?
From following Micah and Dom on Twitter and reading their stuff. In terms of getting my head around it, it helped to find some friends who were familiar with it and could help me out when there were things I didn't quite get.
Did Jake Virtanen actually get better this year or is he due a regression?
Virtanen had a higher IPP and Sh% over his career norms. However, he also was 4th in the league in hitting the post/crossbar. And 4th on the Canucks in xGAR and was easily the Canucks 3rd best player in 5v5. Virtanen had the 3rd most goals and primary points among Canucks forwards, all while playing Top 9 F minutes.
I wouldn't say due for regression considering that his on-ice xGF driving was much better than his GF driving. At the same time though he was still very poor defensively. I'd say he's an okay third line RW.
Where do you rank Auston Matthews amongst every forward in the NHL? How high do you think he can get on the list?
Idk about forwards but he'd be 5th-7th range among centres.
Ok I’ve got another question. Was there a team in recent history that won the cup that didn’t have great underlying numbers throughout the playoffs? Or they won rounds where they were outplayed by their opponents (analytically)? A team that comes to mind are the 2017 Penguins (who got completely outplayed in game 1 of the SCF that year by the Preds but still won the game) or even maybe the 2015 Blackhawks, who basically played only 3 (maybe 4 if you count Oduya) defensemen after the sweep against the Wild.
Pens in 2017 got extremely lucky. Sharks last year had a 45% xGF%. Habs had a 40% xGF% against the Caps in 2010. If you have the goalie/shooting you can beat the odds.
How good (or bad) is Troy Stecher
Fine bottom pairing RD. The best the Canucks have in terms of overall impact (keeping in mind that Tanev has 0 offence).
You think Canucks should walk away from Tanev?
Yes. Declining pretty hard and his defence finally fell off this year.
What do Kirby Dach’s underlying numbers indicate? Of the top 3 picks in the draft, I’d say he had the best rookie season. I hope he turns into our 1C within the next 3 or 4 years.
He definitely had the best rookie season of the top 3 but tbf Hughes and Kakko had two of the worst rookie seasons ever from top 3 picks. I'm not a prospect guy but he seems to have brought a bit of value to the table this year.
Hopefully he reaches his potential. Thanks for replying!
Will Vancouver and Arizona be worse next year? As a Devils fan I think the thought of two unprotected first sound tempting.
I think there's a very good chance that Vancouver could take a step back next year. Powerplay was crazy this year, Edler+Tanev getting older, Horvat declining, questions in goal, etc. They'd need Hughes to take the next step to actually being one of the best defencemen in the league and for Boeser to get his scoring touch back to improve IMO.
As for Arizona, I guess goaltending could help them out (and the Pacific will be weak) but their ceiling is pretty damn low.
My thought also on Vancouver, 1. You sign Markstrom long term that's real $ into the cap which will hurt when Pete/Hughes get 7+ mil contracts each ALSO probably losing Demko in the draft which could hurt long-term. My thoughts on Arizona, think they got lucky this year personally. Don't think Hall signs and think there offense will dry up. If I was a betting man, I'd say Van more likely to advance and be unprotected next year over AZ bc they are simply favorites this year and don't think AZ can beat NSH
Thoughts on Toffoli? Is he worth the Canucks keeping?
Dug into his numbers here. He's a good player but I'm lower on him than many analytics-minded folks. All about the price tag but I'd be skeptical paying him above 5M for what he brings.
https://twitter.com/JFreshHockey/status/1282747345822797825
Has anyone ever told you that you look like Jack Johnson
I appreciate the compliment.
What should the Rangers do with each of their key RFAs in free agency? And also hank?
Strome: Trade him. Do not pay him the Panarin-boost money. Try to replace him short-term
DeAngelo: If he's that much of a headache then trade him but purely in terms of his play resign him.
Georgiev: Test the market if you're not willing to buy out Hank, bridge him if you are.
Rangers have to think longterm here IMO the depth is just too weak right now to go "all in"
I agree with all that. I’ve heard strome is due for regression, Deangelo is a must-keep, and georgiev would be a great backup, so keep him if possible. Thx for the response 🙏
Would you rather pay Jack Johnson 1 million for 5 year to be Pittsburgh's #1 defenseman (based off most minutes and toughest competition) or give him 8 million for 5 years to be Pittsburgh's 6th defenseman?
Good god. I do not have an answer for you but I'm sure it will haunt my dreams for a while.
Where would you rank Theodore among defensemen? I personally have him in the 7-10 range
Theodore's tricky because his numbers are obviously incredible but two things worry me:
1. His on-ice GF RAPM numbers have not increased despite his xGF numbers getting elite
2. He is hilariously sheltered for a guy who plays 22 minutes a night.
These are things that generally would not worry me about a defenceman in moderation, but they give me pause. I can't really make heads or tails of him despite my instinct being to put him in that top category. Would be worth looking into in detail when the offseason hits.
where would you rank drai among centers? imo hes 8th, no higher.
8th seems about right. But he does seem to be a better centre than a winger so the Oil give him the chance to do that fulltime next season he could leapfrog some guys.
very possible. thanks for the response:)
Best value contract on the Leafs of anyone making more than 1M?
Hyman, pretty much by default.
Draisatl or Matthews
Matthews is a better offensive playdriver and significantly better defensively. Drai's a slightly better shooter and has better GF numbers (but plays with #97 a decent amount). I take Matthews by a hair.
Draisaitl or Matthews?
Is Taylor hall good
Gonna do a full article on that hopefully this week
Do you think Claude Giroux was robbed of being a hart nominee in 2017? As a Flyers fan I was sure he would’ve been with his crazy season.
Assuming you mean 2018, yes. Although you could theoretically say that Couturier was almost as valuable that year which could throw a wrench in it depending on your definition of Hart.
Next expansion/relocation cities for NHL?
I've always just assumed that they're keeping Quebec on the backburner in case one of the Southern teams implodes.
how do you feel about the strategy of an analytics based team, like the leafs, with their current use of cap space? if you were kyle dubas what would you do differently when it comes to roster construction, if anything at all?
I think the strategy of going all-in on the core at top dollar was probably not the way to go, because I'm not sure how much confidence I have in that core (especially Tavares moving forward). I like their system in terms of doing the Penguins thing of turning out ELC bottom sixers as a solid clip though.
In terms of roster construction I think doing the opposite of whatever the hell happened with Tyson Barrie would be the right call. I think building the Leafs to be all-offence squad is not a winning strategy. I wonder if similar problems to Arizona popped up. If Rielly is the #1D they absolutely need to get a defensively sound partner for him yesterday. At the same time if Rielly costs over $9M I'm not sure if they'll be able to recover from that.
I know his defense brings him down quite a bit, but where would you have Patrick Kane on ranking wingers? Top 20?
Probably not. He'd be right near the top in terms of best offensive wingers, but it's hard to overstate just how poor his defence is. I do think that some stats people sell his offence short because of his meh xGF driving, when there's clearly something about his passing ability which leads to him consistently outperforming it.
I know defense is important, but he often outscores his defensive deficiencies. Obviously, that doesn’t excuse his lack of defensive effort, but does it make it better I guess you could say for the Hawks?
Yes, although I would also caution that a good chunk of that "outscoring" is because of Corey Crawford. But he's pretty easily a positive impact player IMO.
Thanks much appreciated.