Is the devil's young core actually good / promising to the future? Specifically everyone who isn't Jack Hughes (i.e. ty smith, Yegor Sharangovich, Jesper Bratt, Mike Mcleod, etc.)
They're fine. Probably promising since I'm not a prospects guy, but none of those guys right now is anything more than a decent middle-of-the-lineup guy
Does Seth Jones still count as overrated? He would be my guy. Most "overrated" forwards still contribute at elite levels, like for example Kane and Draisaitl from the poll last weekend
I was about to include a "not including Seth jones" clause in my comment because i saw that coming. I was still stupid enough to draft him in fantasy regardless though... Anyone else on defence?
What do you make of "too east-west, gotta be north-south, more grit, etc." attitudes? I think there are kernels of truth buried in old school nonsense and the best teams adjust.
There are different ways to win but being able to execute a style that fits the players you have is what matters most IMO. Productive grit is always an asset
Where do you think Marchand finishes in Hart voting. He has absolutely carried Boston offensively this year and I think he deserves some real recognition, but I also think his reputation is gonna hold him back.
It's a crowded field this year. Marchand, MacKinnon, Crosby, Hellebuyck, Vasilevskiy, Stone, Kane I guess will all garner some support. He certainly deserves to be up there
General opinion is that without an elite C a team can’t win the cup. Vegas seems to do fine without it. In case of Stone’s line Stephenson’s speed appears to back off Ds and give Stone & Pacioretty T&S to make plays. Also, playing a 5 man unit seems to help. I read your excellent article about this awhile back. But wondering your thoughts on them being able to win it all (not just get by) without that elite C?
Yeah, they're roughly back to where they were in 2018-19. The big thing has been his finishing has gone from awful to amazing all of a sudden, so that point production might not be so sustainable
The Habs have been elite at controling shots at 5 on 5 for years but haven't been able to translate that in playoff success. Should they change the strategy to attack the slot more or do they just need to fix the roster?
How are Edmonton Adam Larsson, Darnell nurse, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Tyson Barrie doing? Outside of Nurse what do the player cards tell us about who’s important to their success and who should they sign?
What do you think is going to be the biggest contract taken by Seattle in terms of remaining value? I keep reading that Brett Burns might head there, but am confused on why Seattle would want him without a huge sweetener.
How have k’andre miller and jacob trouba played this year? Miller started strong but he has been much worse since trouba got hurt, and the rangers defense has been notably worse without trouba as well
The K'Andre Miller hype definitely seems like it was premature (not that he won't develop into something good but his underlying numbers are poor). Trouba has indeed seen a huge bounceback.
Can you name 3-5 fantasy studs that are up and coming who aren’t exactly household top of the draft list names? The guys behind the scenes who get it done and win your fantasy week and make your opponents say “how’d that guy beat me”??? Thanks
Lol Shesterkin, Sorokin, Vanecek, Lankinen, Kahkonen, Oettinger, Nedeljkovic. The ones who’ve played at least 20 games (sorokin played 19 but I’ll count him)
The underlying numbers bumped up before the points did... I think having the Bergeron/Pastrnak duo has definitely helped and he's thrived in that larger role.
what’s the difference between last years blue jackets and this years blue jackets? Why is their d so much worse? Seth Jones has always been overrated, but this year he’s terrible! Does this team really miss ryan murray and markus nutivaara that much? What am i missing?
I built a few visualizations just for fun last spring, couple people liked them and followed. Pandemic hit so I started doing some more and writing some articles and it all has kind of avalanched from there. Probably not a model for success
Before the season, you predicted Seth Jones to win the Norris. Was it a case of buying into the hype, or has this season just been that much of an outlier/disaster?
I didn't think he would deserve to win it, just that the hype would carry him along. I underestimated both how terrible he would be and how much of a mess the Jackets would be that it wasn't even a consideration
Is the Herd line as good as it is fun to watch? It consists of Yakov Trenin, Colton Sissons, Tanner Jeannot, and Mathieu Olivier. Jeannot and Olivier are interchangeable depending on injury.
Looking at how xGF% for Washington is so underwhelming, but they finish like dynamite. Do you think xGF heavily overvalues forecheck-driven shot attempts (players trying to stuff into goalie pads) as compared to rush-driven chances? Which xG models account for situation dynamics?
If you asked me two weeks ago I would have said yes, but with a glimpse at private SportLogiq models (whose improvements are responsible for about 1/3 of the diff between public models and actual goals), Washington looks basically identical. So maybe not.
Morgan Rielly's having a weird season. A lot of Leaf fans seem to want him gone due to poor defense and "questionable offensive decision-making", but his RAPM still shows him a one of the very best in the league offensively (if not the best for this season) and a high-caliber DMan. What could the disconnect be from?
Yeah Rielly is what he is - a player who is terrible defensively and elite at generating offence. Any elite offensive defenceman will get dinged by fans for "questionable decisionmaking" because they handle the puck so much. Listen to Pens fans talk about Letang for the past decade.
How sustainable do you think Rantanen's production is long term? He's been great and very enjoyable to watch, but I wasn't sure what the stats say about the sustainability of his production
It's very tough to separate Rantanen's production and finishing from the fact that he gets to play with MacKinnon but assuming that they keep playing together seems pretty sustainable to me?
His xGF% and stuff are better. I think it's probably a mutually beneficial thing, his forechecking is probably helping Huberdeau stay in the offensive zone longer and Huberdeau is obviously the offensive driver on the line
Thoughts on Erik Cernak? I've been impressed by his play this year on an eye test level personally, so I'm wondering more about how his underlying numbers look.
We don't have stats for the vast majority of Brodeur's career that consider shot quality, which I feel could be a big omission considering the Devils defence. All I can really say is that post-2007-08 his numbers were garbage.
Hard to really judge because they don't necessarily have their franchise pieces in place yet. I don't think Dylan Larkin will be their #1 centre when they're a contender and idk enough about Sieder to say for sure that he'll be a home run #1 defenceman. Loved the Vrana trade, liked his acquisitions last summer.
Pretty large. The fact that he doesn't have one and actually has good enough defensive numbers might gather some votes from the "listens to Dom L" segment of the PHWA. Maaaybe Mark Stone gets some love but as a winger that's always gonna be an uphill battle.
Not a prospects guy but based on their results we're still waiting for KK and Suzuki to really be strong offensive players at 5v5. Caufield seems to have that upside. Plus he always turns into a perennial 60 goal scorer for me in franchise mode, so......
Is the devil's young core actually good / promising to the future? Specifically everyone who isn't Jack Hughes (i.e. ty smith, Yegor Sharangovich, Jesper Bratt, Mike Mcleod, etc.)
They're fine. Probably promising since I'm not a prospects guy, but none of those guys right now is anything more than a decent middle-of-the-lineup guy
Who is the most overrated player in the NHL? (someone that gets high praise but has very bad analytics)
Does Seth Jones still count as overrated? He would be my guy. Most "overrated" forwards still contribute at elite levels, like for example Kane and Draisaitl from the poll last weekend
I was about to include a "not including Seth jones" clause in my comment because i saw that coming. I was still stupid enough to draft him in fantasy regardless though... Anyone else on defence?
Hmm... maybe Darnell Nurse? He's much worse defensively than I think the average person assumes (because tall players can't be bad at defence)
Of course tall players can't be bad. That's why Myers is my Norris favourite. Thanks for the replies though. I love your content.
What do you make of "too east-west, gotta be north-south, more grit, etc." attitudes? I think there are kernels of truth buried in old school nonsense and the best teams adjust.
There are different ways to win but being able to execute a style that fits the players you have is what matters most IMO. Productive grit is always an asset
Where do you think Marchand finishes in Hart voting. He has absolutely carried Boston offensively this year and I think he deserves some real recognition, but I also think his reputation is gonna hold him back.
It's a crowded field this year. Marchand, MacKinnon, Crosby, Hellebuyck, Vasilevskiy, Stone, Kane I guess will all garner some support. He certainly deserves to be up there
General opinion is that without an elite C a team can’t win the cup. Vegas seems to do fine without it. In case of Stone’s line Stephenson’s speed appears to back off Ds and give Stone & Pacioretty T&S to make plays. Also, playing a 5 man unit seems to help. I read your excellent article about this awhile back. But wondering your thoughts on them being able to win it all (not just get by) without that elite C?
Yeah I think Stone and Pacioretty are good enough to negate the traditional need for a 1C who leads the way.
Vinnie Trochek is delivering by point production this season. Does his underlying metrics merit calling it a comeback?
Yeah, they're roughly back to where they were in 2018-19. The big thing has been his finishing has gone from awful to amazing all of a sudden, so that point production might not be so sustainable
Are Bruins legit cup contenders? Hall and Krejci could be dynamite. If D gets and stays healthy, i say yes.
Absolutely. Was high on them going into the season and Hall adds a whole new dimension
Is Palát unspoken genius?
I don't know about unspoken genius but he's a perfectly good complementary 2nd liner
Curious if you still feel Drew Doughty is terrible based on the 2021 year he seems to have bounced back, but maybe you see different
The Habs have been elite at controling shots at 5 on 5 for years but haven't been able to translate that in playoff success. Should they change the strategy to attack the slot more or do they just need to fix the roster?
How are Edmonton Adam Larsson, Darnell nurse, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Tyson Barrie doing? Outside of Nurse what do the player cards tell us about who’s important to their success and who should they sign?
What do you think is going to be the biggest contract taken by Seattle in terms of remaining value? I keep reading that Brett Burns might head there, but am confused on why Seattle would want him without a huge sweetener.
How do you think the sens rebuild is going?
Why happened to Anthony Cirelli this year? Is there any chance to get WARs from your+ Patricks's model for single games?
Which of the top four teams in the East do the analytics look on most favorably?
What do you think of Debrincat's come back this season, is it just him finishing at a higher rate or is there more to it?
Is Quinn Hughes a #1 defenseman? I thought so last year but this year has been rough and I'm worried he's actually a Tyson Barrie type.
I don't think he's a Tyson Barrie type but he might well be a Morgan Rielly type who needs a legitimately good defensive guy next to him to succeed
Who is the worst full time or close to full time player in the league? Either today or over the past few seasons.
By 3-year WAR, the worst forward in the league is Tage Thompson and the worst defenceman is Libor Hajek
Who are some players that you love even if their analytics are garbage?
At this point I have a legitimate fondness for Johnson (now that he's off my team). I'd have to think about this a bit more.
How have k’andre miller and jacob trouba played this year? Miller started strong but he has been much worse since trouba got hurt, and the rangers defense has been notably worse without trouba as well
The K'Andre Miller hype definitely seems like it was premature (not that he won't develop into something good but his underlying numbers are poor). Trouba has indeed seen a huge bounceback.
any dark horse teams that you think can go on a deep run? any teams that you think are overrated that might exit early in the 1st round?
Anyone in the East could go deep. The easy answer for the second question is the Jets, although they might not even be the higher seed soon.
Can you name 3-5 fantasy studs that are up and coming who aren’t exactly household top of the draft list names? The guys behind the scenes who get it done and win your fantasy week and make your opponents say “how’d that guy beat me”??? Thanks
Calder winner is?
Flip a coin
What’s your long-term projection on Puljujarvi? Is he a legit top six forward or should Oilers fans temper their expectations?
Legit top six complementary forward
Has Weber begun to decline or is his performance more related to his team's performance?
He's declined.
How much Hope is there for Zadina to be a Top 6 guy for the Red Wings? Thoughts on Rasmussen and Veleno?
Neither Zadina or Rasmussen has done anything good in terms of underlying numbers, but it is still early. Not sure on Veleno
How would you rank the 7 main rookie goalies from this season
You'd have to tell me who they are haha
Lol Shesterkin, Sorokin, Vanecek, Lankinen, Kahkonen, Oettinger, Nedeljkovic. The ones who’ve played at least 20 games (sorokin played 19 but I’ll count him)
How did Brad Marchand suddenly become a top 10 player in his late 20’s
The underlying numbers bumped up before the points did... I think having the Bergeron/Pastrnak duo has definitely helped and he's thrived in that larger role.
What are your thoughts on Mika Zibanejad? Can he keep us his scoring pace from last season and the past 35 games in the next few years?
what’s the difference between last years blue jackets and this years blue jackets? Why is their d so much worse? Seth Jones has always been overrated, but this year he’s terrible! Does this team really miss ryan murray and markus nutivaara that much? What am i missing?
Thoughts on Petro, Krug and Faulk this season?
Do you have any advice for people looking at getting started in hockey analytics as a career?
As somebody who stumbled ass-backwards into it I don't know... I would recommend you start from the coding side of things rather than the way I did it
Care to explain this story?
I built a few visualizations just for fun last spring, couple people liked them and followed. Pandemic hit so I started doing some more and writing some articles and it all has kind of avalanched from there. Probably not a model for success
Before the season, you predicted Seth Jones to win the Norris. Was it a case of buying into the hype, or has this season just been that much of an outlier/disaster?
I didn't think he would deserve to win it, just that the hype would carry him along. I underestimated both how terrible he would be and how much of a mess the Jackets would be that it wasn't even a consideration
Is the Herd line as good as it is fun to watch? It consists of Yakov Trenin, Colton Sissons, Tanner Jeannot, and Mathieu Olivier. Jeannot and Olivier are interchangeable depending on injury.
Looking at how xGF% for Washington is so underwhelming, but they finish like dynamite. Do you think xGF heavily overvalues forecheck-driven shot attempts (players trying to stuff into goalie pads) as compared to rush-driven chances? Which xG models account for situation dynamics?
If you asked me two weeks ago I would have said yes, but with a glimpse at private SportLogiq models (whose improvements are responsible for about 1/3 of the diff between public models and actual goals), Washington looks basically identical. So maybe not.
Who plays the role of Wild Bill for Seattle?
Daniel Sprong
Worst free agent signing of the year?
Markstrom isn't looking too hot
Morgan Rielly's having a weird season. A lot of Leaf fans seem to want him gone due to poor defense and "questionable offensive decision-making", but his RAPM still shows him a one of the very best in the league offensively (if not the best for this season) and a high-caliber DMan. What could the disconnect be from?
Yeah Rielly is what he is - a player who is terrible defensively and elite at generating offence. Any elite offensive defenceman will get dinged by fans for "questionable decisionmaking" because they handle the puck so much. Listen to Pens fans talk about Letang for the past decade.
Does Vegas find a way to trade Fleury before next season? Or is there a long shot chance they deal Lehner?
They'll probably just keep running the two of them tbh. Not sure if they have anyone they need to lock up right away
How sustainable do you think Rantanen's production is long term? He's been great and very enjoyable to watch, but I wasn't sure what the stats say about the sustainability of his production
It's very tough to separate Rantanen's production and finishing from the fact that he gets to play with MacKinnon but assuming that they keep playing together seems pretty sustainable to me?
Have Sam Bennett’s analytics actually improved in Florida or is it just that he’s playing with johnathan huberdeau
His xGF% and stuff are better. I think it's probably a mutually beneficial thing, his forechecking is probably helping Huberdeau stay in the offensive zone longer and Huberdeau is obviously the offensive driver on the line
I love this question. Please answer this!
what is the biggest issue with the yotes?
Just not enough talent, especially at forward. Many okay players
How's Suzuki doing analytically compared to last season?
Just as good as a scoring chance suppressor, better at generating scoring chances, not finishing well.
Thoughts on Erik Cernak? I've been impressed by his play this year on an eye test level personally, so I'm wondering more about how his underlying numbers look.
Very good defensive defenceman.
Who do ur top 3 hart candidates look like?
McDavid, Matthews, and then it's a shit show. My answer changes by the day
how good is shea weber?
At this point? I don't think that good as a #1. Very poor in transition, mostly a crutch on the powerplay, slow.
Who do you think is better between Martin Brodeur and Henrick Lundqvist?
We don't have stats for the vast majority of Brodeur's career that consider shot quality, which I feel could be a big omission considering the Devils defence. All I can really say is that post-2007-08 his numbers were garbage.
*Henrik
How do you like Steve Yzerman's performance of the Red Wings GM thus far?
Hard to really judge because they don't necessarily have their franchise pieces in place yet. I don't think Dylan Larkin will be their #1 centre when they're a contender and idk enough about Sieder to say for sure that he'll be a home run #1 defenceman. Loved the Vrana trade, liked his acquisitions last summer.
How big favourite Barkov is to win Selke?
Pretty large. The fact that he doesn't have one and actually has good enough defensive numbers might gather some votes from the "listens to Dom L" segment of the PHWA. Maaaybe Mark Stone gets some love but as a winger that's always gonna be an uphill battle.
Who has the better potential between Caufield, Kotkaniemi & Suzuki ?
Not a prospects guy but based on their results we're still waiting for KK and Suzuki to really be strong offensive players at 5v5. Caufield seems to have that upside. Plus he always turns into a perennial 60 goal scorer for me in franchise mode, so......
Thanks for this thoughtful answer based on franchise mode. It is really an underrated metric