what is the difference in point projection for Puljujarvi playing on McDavid's line vs. not playing with McDavid (or even Draisaitl)? Basically, how many points can average players pad to their stat line when playing with elite linemates?
i would imagine a very large number, even for a player who's a good driver of scoring chances having a passer or finisher like 97 or 29 (plus top six minutes) would play a huge role in production. one of the reasons points are misleading
I see content in different places, but seldom see it here. I know this will sound archaic, but I don't have a Twitter account. Is that the only way to get the other content?
What is the most valuable location on the power play? Is it good to have a top flight D at the top or wings? Or does a bumper sniper give everyone more room to succeed? I don’t think this is possible but if so would love to see it!
Looking at a team like the Capitals who will likely continue to outperform most predictive models, what are the kinds of stats missing now in the input of these models that could potentially account for special circumstances like that and maybe make things even better for all teams year-out predictions? (Or even just a wish list of non related data)
i would guess that it's more information on shot types (one-timers, rush chances, etc). But IIRC the sportlogiq model had the Caps' xG at about the same level as the public ones
Is there a world where the sharks make the playoffs in a weak pacific? Also am I the only one who thinks edmonton is gonna be really bad this year, every game is gonna be 7-6
It was a great one but there were others behind worse defences that were more impressive IMO. that said if you take that run together with his season performance you have a good argument for the best year of hockey in NHL history
if they're bad enough, sure. but with Dallas I'm more worried about what on earth that system has done to John Klingberg (and to a lesser extent Miro Heiskanen)
Bowness' forecheck is weird. Jack Han had a good post about Klingberg, but when he first took over, he would have two guys pressure, and the F3 would literally start floating towards the neutral whether Dallas won control of the puck or not. You can see it in the trailing numbers under Bowness that first year - when down a goal, they would further shut the game down (!) rather than actively push. Just an insane defensive mindset that killed their ability to push the pace. Bowness has gotten better, but he's gonna ride or die on 'offense comes from good defense' and never give 'maybe defense can come from good offense' a second thought.
my model is higher on Philadelphia and Calgary than I think any other analyst. am i confident about that? no. i think it's fair to expect that the hurricanes are primed for a big regression, and possibly the Wild as well
Who do you think has the most likely chance of turning in an elite season analytically among former "elite" dman in the NHL? (Karlsson, Doughty, Subban, OEL, Jones)
I realize you’re just gonna tell me you can’t spoil the defencemen list which I can’t see by the way, signing up for the website gives me a 404 error. Instead, I ask do you think Pastrnak’s 2019-2020 season was a fluke?
you are correct, maybe try again with a different browser?
I assume you mean in terms of goal scoring. Maybe, it was certainly extremely elevated. And Brad Marchand won't be a top 5 playmaker in the league forever. But his total game aside from scoring was arguably a lot better this season
If OEL/Poolman (too notoriously bad analytics players) actually manage to succeed or tread water in their new roles/team, do you think yourself or your other analytical colleagues would put more emphasis on environmental factors in determining all consuming statistics like WAR? (I’m curious how heavily weighed environmental factors are right now and if they’re constantly updating how to account for these factors)
the thing about the summer's big controversial moves (OEL to VAN, Jones to CHI, Keith to EDM) is that they feature players going from teams that are bad defensively to teams that are bad defensively. the canucks were not better than the coyotes last season, and defensively they were much, much worse.
players can do better in new locations or do worse, just as they can do better in a certain season than they did in the previous one. without an insanely detailed statistical profile of coaching schemes to input i don't think that there's really a better way to incorporate "environmental" factors into WAR. the work has to be done through external qualitative analysis of the player and teams in question, which i try to integrate into longer form writing (like my OEL trade analysis piece on this blog)
the gist here is that if OEL does well in vancouver, we can maybe look to what's working for him this season and do some retrospective analysis but without getting into psychology as of right now there is not much reason to expect him to succeed much more there than he did in Arizona.
Why does Jake Muzzin never get any Team Canada love? Your player card of his is beautiful and per EH's xGAR model, over the last two seasons, he's ahead of guys like Ekblad, Chabot, Pelech, Nurse, etc.
he's kind of an all-around player who doesn't have the flashy skillset of some of those other guys. plus he's older. i think it's fair to say he should be in the conversation
just makes for better and smarter analysis of teams and players. not perfect but a lot better than relying on heuristics or reputation, and they catch plenty that many would otherwise miss.
the worst good faith usage of them just comes from people who want an easy and iron-clad definitive statement. or who don't understand how the stats work and either dismiss them out of hand or present them as inarguable.
is he playing with Boqvist? dom had him with jake bean and gavrikov with boqvist (which makes more sense to me).
werenski's in-zone skills are pretty weak and boqvist doesn't seem much better in that area. that said, his numbers have generally improved lately when he's not with Jones. will be interesting to watch
that's a fair point, do you think Werenski and Bean is a sturdy enough first pair? I love Gavrikov so I trust him anchoring the second pair with Boqvist.
scoring a last-minute tying goal in a playoff game flinging a puck that was just out of reach from the high slot across the goalie and barely seeing it go in as i fell and slid to the boards. that and playing street hockey with my brother when we were kids
Where do you rank Crosby and Malkin out of all forwards. Feel like Malkin has fallen in most people’s rankings but Crosby hasn’t yet? Basically are these guys still the same players they were in 2016/17 or not
won't spoil my centres article (coming today!) but they're both still really good. Sid is obviously an elite two-way player now and people sleep on Geno at their own peril - his skillset is unbelievable when he's healthy (underrated when it comes to takeaways as well)
Fair enough. Ya I feel like Geno just gets lowered because of injury. But I saw him play in person a couple years ago in really good seats (thanks ottawa for having cheap tickets) and was surpised by just how physically dominant Malkin is in both zones. Something he doesn’t really get a rep for in general.
his finishing was already sky-high so probably not to a much greater extent than now? i'm curious to see what happens with Hughes because we've been waiting for Barzal to go off for a few years and he's capped out at around 70 point pace.
what is the difference in point projection for Puljujarvi playing on McDavid's line vs. not playing with McDavid (or even Draisaitl)? Basically, how many points can average players pad to their stat line when playing with elite linemates?
i would imagine a very large number, even for a player who's a good driver of scoring chances having a passer or finisher like 97 or 29 (plus top six minutes) would play a huge role in production. one of the reasons points are misleading
How does this affect the leafs?
the same way everything does
Why do you obviously hate my favorite team or player?
this would work better if I wasn't the only analysts even slightly enthusiastic about the flames this year kent
I was asking for all the people who just know you juke your models specifically to insult them.
Are you Colby Smith from Cape Breton?
pls reply
I see content in different places, but seldom see it here. I know this will sound archaic, but I don't have a Twitter account. Is that the only way to get the other content?
What is the most valuable location on the power play? Is it good to have a top flight D at the top or wings? Or does a bumper sniper give everyone more room to succeed? I don’t think this is possible but if so would love to see it!
How do you think the rangers deal with the 9 million in cap they have. Foolish not to use it right ?
Had a debate in a group chat i am in for panthers fans. We were talking about ranking the following 4 centers:
Eichel, Barkov, Stamkos, Bergeron.
I went Eichel, Barkov, Bergeron, Stamkos. How would you rank them?
probably barkov, eichel, bergeron, stamkos. first three could be any order
Who do you see winning the 5 major awards and who do you see as the runner ups?
Vezina, Norris, Hart, Lindsay, and Calder.
Why do teams value centers over wingers? Shouldn’t they want the best offensive and defensive players regardless of position?
centre is simply a more important position
Looking at a team like the Capitals who will likely continue to outperform most predictive models, what are the kinds of stats missing now in the input of these models that could potentially account for special circumstances like that and maybe make things even better for all teams year-out predictions? (Or even just a wish list of non related data)
i would guess that it's more information on shot types (one-timers, rush chances, etc). But IIRC the sportlogiq model had the Caps' xG at about the same level as the public ones
do you think McAvoy can drag Forbort better, worse, or the same as he did with Lauzon (55-57% across the board save for 50% GF%)??
Forbort isn't horrible but his lack of puck skills just mean that McAvoy will have to do even more heavy lifting
so you think he'll have to do even more heavy lifting than he did with Lauzon?
Is there a world where the sharks make the playoffs in a weak pacific? Also am I the only one who thinks edmonton is gonna be really bad this year, every game is gonna be 7-6
Sure, they got better already by losing Jones. But it's still a long climb that would require some big bounce backs
Will you ever do another one of those 'Alternate Reality' reddit posts? I liked those.
I did too, eventually I just kinda ran out of ideas to be quite honest
Do you think the Canadiens will make the playoffs
No
eta on NHL 22 player ratings?
when the game comes out
Can you please do an Eric Robinson player card? A lot of hype on the CBJ boards, I’m not sold yet. But maybe my eyes are wrong.
Are the Islanders going to win the cup this year?
Probably not
Which non elite goalie do you think will have the best season
Elvis
Which player has the better chance of "carrying" the pens early in the season with Crosby Malkin and Jake out?
Kapanen can at least quick strike on his own without any help. but they'd better hope the answer is Letang
Was Tim Thomas in 2011 the greatest postseason performance by a goalie in the analytics era?
It was a great one but there were others behind worse defences that were more impressive IMO. that said if you take that run together with his season performance you have a good argument for the best year of hockey in NHL history
best year of goaltending**
Who wins the Richard Trophy? Assume all players remain healthy.
matthews
How many points does datsyuk score if he were to come back to the nhl this year?
last year his nhl equivalency was 43 points. so i'll say 40
What's your favorite Penguins goal call? Mine's Bonino's OT goal in game 6 against WSH
hard to beat that one
Do you think the predators have a chance at the playoffs ?
Sure, not a big one though
How do you think will tomasino peform this year?
no idea but smart people seem very excited
Is it possible for a team to be sunk by their bottom six, like Dallas might?
if they're bad enough, sure. but with Dallas I'm more worried about what on earth that system has done to John Klingberg (and to a lesser extent Miro Heiskanen)
Bowness' forecheck is weird. Jack Han had a good post about Klingberg, but when he first took over, he would have two guys pressure, and the F3 would literally start floating towards the neutral whether Dallas won control of the puck or not. You can see it in the trailing numbers under Bowness that first year - when down a goal, they would further shut the game down (!) rather than actively push. Just an insane defensive mindset that killed their ability to push the pace. Bowness has gotten better, but he's gonna ride or die on 'offense comes from good defense' and never give 'maybe defense can come from good offense' a second thought.
Who’s poised for a better breakout year, Kakko or Whalstrom
Kakko will have more opportunity I think
What fanbase do you think hates you the most right know and which one hates you the most all time? Keep up the good work btw
Senators, Senators. although Canucks and Oilers and Red Wings (?!) fans are also not too fond
Will Jujhar Khaira score 20+ goals this season?
lock of the week
What player do you think is better than what his advance stats show?
jaccob slavin. hamilton effect screwed with his numbers and expect him to look more like the 2017-18 version of himself again
1 surprise team your high and on expect to do well, and one team you think falls back from a good season(s)
my model is higher on Philadelphia and Calgary than I think any other analyst. am i confident about that? no. i think it's fair to expect that the hurricanes are primed for a big regression, and possibly the Wild as well
Who is the most underrated prospect (already drafted) in your opinion? Someone you think will be a star that doesn’t get enough hype.
no idea, don't know anything about prospects. numbers suggest that william eklund could be a stud?
Who do you think has the most likely chance of turning in an elite season analytically among former "elite" dman in the NHL? (Karlsson, Doughty, Subban, OEL, Jones)
Karlsson still has a lot looking very good under the hood in terms of microstats. Still a longshot.
Jones is an easier answer I guess since he's the youngest
In your opinion, where does Mcavoy rank among the league’s top defencemen
I realize you’re just gonna tell me you can’t spoil the defencemen list which I can’t see by the way, signing up for the website gives me a 404 error. Instead, I ask do you think Pastrnak’s 2019-2020 season was a fluke?
you are correct, maybe try again with a different browser?
I assume you mean in terms of goal scoring. Maybe, it was certainly extremely elevated. And Brad Marchand won't be a top 5 playmaker in the league forever. But his total game aside from scoring was arguably a lot better this season
For this year, Kotkaniemi or Dvorak?
Dvorak. But Kotkaniemi is at an age where if he's got another level he'll probably hit it soon
If OEL/Poolman (too notoriously bad analytics players) actually manage to succeed or tread water in their new roles/team, do you think yourself or your other analytical colleagues would put more emphasis on environmental factors in determining all consuming statistics like WAR? (I’m curious how heavily weighed environmental factors are right now and if they’re constantly updating how to account for these factors)
the thing about the summer's big controversial moves (OEL to VAN, Jones to CHI, Keith to EDM) is that they feature players going from teams that are bad defensively to teams that are bad defensively. the canucks were not better than the coyotes last season, and defensively they were much, much worse.
players can do better in new locations or do worse, just as they can do better in a certain season than they did in the previous one. without an insanely detailed statistical profile of coaching schemes to input i don't think that there's really a better way to incorporate "environmental" factors into WAR. the work has to be done through external qualitative analysis of the player and teams in question, which i try to integrate into longer form writing (like my OEL trade analysis piece on this blog)
the gist here is that if OEL does well in vancouver, we can maybe look to what's working for him this season and do some retrospective analysis but without getting into psychology as of right now there is not much reason to expect him to succeed much more there than he did in Arizona.
Senators making the playoffs this year?
i think it's extremely unlikely, but DJ Smith does seem to be good at rallying the troops
Is there a UFA target that could moonlight/fake their way as a 6th defenseman for NJD if Ty Smith is going to miss some time with injury?
Ben Hutton? I guess?
just wait for waivers
Why does Jake Muzzin never get any Team Canada love? Your player card of his is beautiful and per EH's xGAR model, over the last two seasons, he's ahead of guys like Ekblad, Chabot, Pelech, Nurse, etc.
he's kind of an all-around player who doesn't have the flashy skillset of some of those other guys. plus he's older. i think it's fair to say he should be in the conversation
What do you think is the best use for advanced analytics in hockey?
What do you think is the worst usage of advanced analytics in hockey that you’ve seen? Are there common ways that people misuse certain stats?
just makes for better and smarter analysis of teams and players. not perfect but a lot better than relying on heuristics or reputation, and they catch plenty that many would otherwise miss.
the worst good faith usage of them just comes from people who want an easy and iron-clad definitive statement. or who don't understand how the stats work and either dismiss them out of hand or present them as inarguable.
With how bad seth jones was last year, will Zach Werenski's numbers look even better this year playing with Boqvist?
is he playing with Boqvist? dom had him with jake bean and gavrikov with boqvist (which makes more sense to me).
werenski's in-zone skills are pretty weak and boqvist doesn't seem much better in that area. that said, his numbers have generally improved lately when he's not with Jones. will be interesting to watch
that's a fair point, do you think Werenski and Bean is a sturdy enough first pair? I love Gavrikov so I trust him anchoring the second pair with Boqvist.
no, but the Jackets are in trouble anyway unless they get a miraculous Vézina season from Elvis
Updated prediction for the USA olympic team ?
This is still pretty much what I expect.
https://twitter.com/JFreshHockey/status/1406357920154009607
I love how you have EA’s #3 defenceman as a healthy scratch for his own national team😂
In your opinion:
Most underrated player?
Most overrated player?
overrated would likely be jones or nurse i think? i don't know if weegar or toews even count as underrated anymore. maybe Tatar at this point
In your NHL 22 roster who are going to be the top 5 players in each position?
well that would be spoiling my player ranking articles now wouldn't it
What’s your favorite hockey memory?
scoring a last-minute tying goal in a playoff game flinging a puck that was just out of reach from the high slot across the goalie and barely seeing it go in as i fell and slid to the boards. that and playing street hockey with my brother when we were kids
How do you think Danault's presence on the Kings will impact Kopitar's performance?
It'll hopefully soften his minutes a bit, but I mean the guy isn't exactly young anymore.
Which player that signed for under two million AAV this off-season will be the best signing?
Ondrej Kase
not Bunting?!?!?!
Where do you rank Crosby and Malkin out of all forwards. Feel like Malkin has fallen in most people’s rankings but Crosby hasn’t yet? Basically are these guys still the same players they were in 2016/17 or not
won't spoil my centres article (coming today!) but they're both still really good. Sid is obviously an elite two-way player now and people sleep on Geno at their own peril - his skillset is unbelievable when he's healthy (underrated when it comes to takeaways as well)
Fair enough. Ya I feel like Geno just gets lowered because of injury. But I saw him play in person a couple years ago in really good seats (thanks ottawa for having cheap tickets) and was surpised by just how physically dominant Malkin is in both zones. Something he doesn’t really get a rep for in general.
Do you think Sharangovich has a chance of popping this season? over Hughes?
his finishing was already sky-high so probably not to a much greater extent than now? i'm curious to see what happens with Hughes because we've been waiting for Barzal to go off for a few years and he's capped out at around 70 point pace.