well written and interesting breakdown of how using both advanced stats and game tape can provide insight into why a player isn't performing the way fans have become accustomed to. thanks!
As a Kings fan, I agree with 99% of this and have spent much of the past 2 years trying to argue these points to fellow Kings fans and analysts, who love to live in the past. It's not so much Drew is awful, as his attitude is. He's been put in a horrible situation after signing a contract essentially making him a King for life. Drew is a highly-competitive dude. That's why he was awesome on the Stanley Cup runs and arguably the best player on two Gold Medal teams for Canada. Not unlike Jeff Carter, if he isn't put in a situation where he sees an opportunity to win, he pouts and mails it in. One thing your stat chart didn't show was how horrible Derek Forbort is, and that was Drew's primary partner after Muzzin left. The fatigue of playing often close to 30 mins per night on a crap team will start to break you down. Drew is known for not taking care of his body in the offseason and totally relying on his natural talent. That will be an issue for him on the other side of 30 unless he can learn to recommit himself. I still believe Drew has a lot of upside. I wouldn't write him off. He's still a relatively young for a d-man. He needs to be put in a situation with an opportunity to win. There is a lot of help on the way thanks to some excellent drafting by the Kings in recent years, which has given them the top-ranked prospect pool in the NHL. Drew was excited to play with Tobias Bjornfot, who they got in the 1st round last year with the pick they got for Muzzin. It was the first time he seemed to enjoy playing hockey in several years before he got sent down for eligibility reasons. Because of Covid, we didn't get to see many of the prospects at the end of the season, but they have been dominating in juniors. I expect to see the Kings competing for a playoff spot next season. They won their last 7 games after trading a lot of the deadwood at the deadline and allowing their youth to take over. Hopefully, that will give Drew a reason to start playing again as he starts to see the light at the end of the rebuild tunnel.
100% agree. Guys a bum. Ive been saying it for years. Lazy. Crybaby and selfish. Worst combo for an 11 mil per year guy. He plays pickup style hockey. Only hustles when the puck is near him and he can get on the score sheet. Glad to see him decline
One thing your analysis (and many other Moneypuck analysts) lacks is the understanding that defensemen are not the only players on a team that play defense. Sure, you can look at the numbers of six players in a bubble and come up with the misguided analysis that Matt Roy was the best defenseman on the Kings this season.
What you don't consider is that Roy is playing protected minutes on a pairing that is often matched with a forward line that is attempting to shut down the opposition, not score.
Doughty on the other hand, is playing the hardest minutes matched with the Kings top six who has more pressure to score, often leaving the defense exposed to odd man rushes.
Anyone who uses Corsi numbers in a vacuum to determine whether a player is "elite" or "terrible" doesn't understand the game of hockey. Those advanced stats can be used to come up with supplemental analysis of a player's on-ice performance, or to determine a micro-level strength or weakness in their play. To use those stats to determine how good or bad a player is is disingenuous at best, and absolutely moronic at worst.
That would be a valid criticism in 2014. Ever since then the biggest focus of what you call "Moneypuck Analysts" is to build models that account for all of those context elements that you talk about. As I say repeatedly in the piece, every single stat I used - including the one that compared Roy - is adjusted for quality of competition, teammates, etc. I absolutely did not use Corsi numbers in a vacuum.
...and advanced stats after significantly better than they were 5 years ago. However, they are still nowhere reliable enough to take a handful of fancy stats and say, "see these numbers are ##.## and this number is ### so therefore Doughty is terrible at hockey" and it's dangerous to suggest that they can. Too much of that and you've become James Tanner and continue to insist that Jake Gardiner is the best defenseman in the NHL and don't even bother to watch the games anymore since your mathematical formulas can judge everything.
As you alluded to in your article, recently both Patrick Kane and Conner McDavid both said that Drew Doughty is the best defenseman in the Western Conference. But what do they know....
How do you judge what is reliable? When it fits your opinions? The entire idea of both scouting and statistical analytics is to challenge preconceived notions. As a combination, the stats here and the scouting done by Jack Han shows that Doughty is far from what he used to be. Doughty was my favorite d-man for a long time so it's a hard pill to swallow, but that doesn't mean it's not true.
It seems to me that both your posts here consists of you fighting windmills. Your time would have been better spent reading up on these things and not try to paint everybody according to a stereotype that, quite frankly, doesn't exist.
No, my point is that there does not exist any statistic that can tell you if a player is "good" or "bad". They can help to determine if players are good or bad at something (i.e. A player with a high Rel CF% is good at generating shots or suppressing shot events). Anyone that claims that "the stats show that Doughty is bad" is greatly over relying on stats.
Doughty leads the Kings (and most of the league) in ice time. The team is learning a new system with entirely new personnel coming in. October and November in particular were rough, but the team has been playing better on the whole since January 1, Doughty included.
I have no problem with people using advanced statistics to help supplement an argument, or even to challenge one. I do take issue when people make arguments like "Everyone thinks that Doughty is this elite defenseman, but he's not because Corsi." That's essentially what this article does.
No, that is not what this article essentially does. Claims like that is why I suggested that you read up on it instead of spending all this time fighting against strawmen.
Except that it is exactly what it does. It explicitly goes and cherry picks a few advanced stats (Corsi, xGF, WAR), compares them to another subset of cherry picked team stats, and says "look the stats say that he's bad." 100% of the analysis of his play are based off of his numbers, and there's no actual evidence that the author has ever actually watched a single game that Doughty has ever played in.
Then he links a mock prospect scouting report that analyzes Doughty's play in ONE GAME against Ottawa. Even if we do concede that he was terrible in that game, all that tells us is that he had one bad game, of which every player in the entire league has multiple per season.
As a 20 year season ticket holder that has watched every game that Drew Doughty has ever played in, I can unequivocally state that Doughty is not a terrible defenseman. Is he the Drew Doughty that won the Norris Trophy 2 seasons ago? No, of course not. However, he's still a bonafide #1 defenseman on 15-20 teams in the NHL.
If the article was entitled, "Here are some stats showing why Drew Doughty isn't as elite as everyone says he is." then maybe I could get behind that article. This article, however, is completely abusing advanced stats to make a determination that these stats have no business making.
Correct. If he had been traded to someplace like Toronto, his competitive juices would be flowing again. That's Drew's main problem right now. He was put in a lottery team situation for the past several years, where it's almost counterproductive to try. I expect that to change next season. Kings are going to look totally different now that several of their top prospects are ready to make the jump.
"JFresh" got our click. Good stats. With that said, if you didn't go about it in such a "look at me" fashion as opposed to a "look at my content" it would sit better.
I just read all the comments and it's split. Either they agree with you or they strongly disagree and still believe that Doughty is a top 10 defensemen. I believe the former.
he still has the talent to be a good defenseman. The problem is that the Kings ran him into the ground over the past couple of season. He isn't hitting as much as he used to and that takes its toll on a defenseman. Doug Lidster in Vancouver was a pretty good defenseman who could have had a longer career if he wasn't run into the ground by Vancouver during the 80's. After he left Vancouver he never played a full season again because he was broken at that point. I also think Drew Doughty is responsible for his poor play. The effort isn't there and the motivation isn't there. During a loosing streak Kesler Vancouver could be brutal and just not give a shit. When they were winning he was awesome and I think that that is what's wrong with Doughty: effort, been run into the ground, and he isn't happy
This is so incredibly spot on, thank you! I'm a new season ticket holder and when you mention that we need to move Doughty, the longtime King fans get livid but for all of the reasons, you're right - inflated salary and market value should be enough, we're buildung the next team. My point is he has lost a step - he can't skate with bottom six forwards in today's game. Move him to Toronto for Nylander straight up and let's move on. Please 🤞
I expect a Doughty for Norris article next year. The Kings have a high possibility of getting a very good prospect this year and have a bunch of young guys that are ready. Doughty has been pissed since Bjornfoot got sent down and the Kings were competing for the 1st overall pick not a playoff spot.
Everybody is wrong and you solely is right. You should watch him sometime..Also the kings the last several weeks of season were a top team in NHL..But hey DD sucks ..Your story sucks a$$
WTF is your dislike for Drew or the Kings? After the Cups, some Kings became overpaid and S L O W. His partner Muzzin moved to the Leafs. Drew has a different young kid he's paired with every night. Against the other teams top line. Yeah, you still need to perform, but his role changed to Mentor to all of them, even at his stastical demise due to it. Best of all he EMBRACES his role and is a Leader on this team. Doesn't care about the Norris or plus/minus, just the Team. As for the kids you mentioned as teammates? They all are improving every game and can play very well.
Seems if you get off a computer and watch him you might change your opinion. Regardless, that's mine.
I don't dislike Drew or the Kings personally. I'd recommend that you read the companion piece to this article written by former Marlies Asst. Coach Jack Han, which breaks down game tape. Doughty's problem is that he isn't leading by example, he plays lazy and disinterested and that's a big reason why his stats have plummeted. I agree with you that the kids are great, which is another reason that I don't let his bad performance off the hook.
well written and interesting breakdown of how using both advanced stats and game tape can provide insight into why a player isn't performing the way fans have become accustomed to. thanks!
Loved this, great content. Looking forward to reading more
As a Kings fan, I agree with 99% of this and have spent much of the past 2 years trying to argue these points to fellow Kings fans and analysts, who love to live in the past. It's not so much Drew is awful, as his attitude is. He's been put in a horrible situation after signing a contract essentially making him a King for life. Drew is a highly-competitive dude. That's why he was awesome on the Stanley Cup runs and arguably the best player on two Gold Medal teams for Canada. Not unlike Jeff Carter, if he isn't put in a situation where he sees an opportunity to win, he pouts and mails it in. One thing your stat chart didn't show was how horrible Derek Forbort is, and that was Drew's primary partner after Muzzin left. The fatigue of playing often close to 30 mins per night on a crap team will start to break you down. Drew is known for not taking care of his body in the offseason and totally relying on his natural talent. That will be an issue for him on the other side of 30 unless he can learn to recommit himself. I still believe Drew has a lot of upside. I wouldn't write him off. He's still a relatively young for a d-man. He needs to be put in a situation with an opportunity to win. There is a lot of help on the way thanks to some excellent drafting by the Kings in recent years, which has given them the top-ranked prospect pool in the NHL. Drew was excited to play with Tobias Bjornfot, who they got in the 1st round last year with the pick they got for Muzzin. It was the first time he seemed to enjoy playing hockey in several years before he got sent down for eligibility reasons. Because of Covid, we didn't get to see many of the prospects at the end of the season, but they have been dominating in juniors. I expect to see the Kings competing for a playoff spot next season. They won their last 7 games after trading a lot of the deadwood at the deadline and allowing their youth to take over. Hopefully, that will give Drew a reason to start playing again as he starts to see the light at the end of the rebuild tunnel.
100% agree. Guys a bum. Ive been saying it for years. Lazy. Crybaby and selfish. Worst combo for an 11 mil per year guy. He plays pickup style hockey. Only hustles when the puck is near him and he can get on the score sheet. Glad to see him decline
One thing your analysis (and many other Moneypuck analysts) lacks is the understanding that defensemen are not the only players on a team that play defense. Sure, you can look at the numbers of six players in a bubble and come up with the misguided analysis that Matt Roy was the best defenseman on the Kings this season.
What you don't consider is that Roy is playing protected minutes on a pairing that is often matched with a forward line that is attempting to shut down the opposition, not score.
Doughty on the other hand, is playing the hardest minutes matched with the Kings top six who has more pressure to score, often leaving the defense exposed to odd man rushes.
Anyone who uses Corsi numbers in a vacuum to determine whether a player is "elite" or "terrible" doesn't understand the game of hockey. Those advanced stats can be used to come up with supplemental analysis of a player's on-ice performance, or to determine a micro-level strength or weakness in their play. To use those stats to determine how good or bad a player is is disingenuous at best, and absolutely moronic at worst.
That would be a valid criticism in 2014. Ever since then the biggest focus of what you call "Moneypuck Analysts" is to build models that account for all of those context elements that you talk about. As I say repeatedly in the piece, every single stat I used - including the one that compared Roy - is adjusted for quality of competition, teammates, etc. I absolutely did not use Corsi numbers in a vacuum.
...and advanced stats after significantly better than they were 5 years ago. However, they are still nowhere reliable enough to take a handful of fancy stats and say, "see these numbers are ##.## and this number is ### so therefore Doughty is terrible at hockey" and it's dangerous to suggest that they can. Too much of that and you've become James Tanner and continue to insist that Jake Gardiner is the best defenseman in the NHL and don't even bother to watch the games anymore since your mathematical formulas can judge everything.
As you alluded to in your article, recently both Patrick Kane and Conner McDavid both said that Drew Doughty is the best defenseman in the Western Conference. But what do they know....
How do you judge what is reliable? When it fits your opinions? The entire idea of both scouting and statistical analytics is to challenge preconceived notions. As a combination, the stats here and the scouting done by Jack Han shows that Doughty is far from what he used to be. Doughty was my favorite d-man for a long time so it's a hard pill to swallow, but that doesn't mean it's not true.
It seems to me that both your posts here consists of you fighting windmills. Your time would have been better spent reading up on these things and not try to paint everybody according to a stereotype that, quite frankly, doesn't exist.
No, my point is that there does not exist any statistic that can tell you if a player is "good" or "bad". They can help to determine if players are good or bad at something (i.e. A player with a high Rel CF% is good at generating shots or suppressing shot events). Anyone that claims that "the stats show that Doughty is bad" is greatly over relying on stats.
Doughty leads the Kings (and most of the league) in ice time. The team is learning a new system with entirely new personnel coming in. October and November in particular were rough, but the team has been playing better on the whole since January 1, Doughty included.
I have no problem with people using advanced statistics to help supplement an argument, or even to challenge one. I do take issue when people make arguments like "Everyone thinks that Doughty is this elite defenseman, but he's not because Corsi." That's essentially what this article does.
No, that is not what this article essentially does. Claims like that is why I suggested that you read up on it instead of spending all this time fighting against strawmen.
Except that it is exactly what it does. It explicitly goes and cherry picks a few advanced stats (Corsi, xGF, WAR), compares them to another subset of cherry picked team stats, and says "look the stats say that he's bad." 100% of the analysis of his play are based off of his numbers, and there's no actual evidence that the author has ever actually watched a single game that Doughty has ever played in.
Then he links a mock prospect scouting report that analyzes Doughty's play in ONE GAME against Ottawa. Even if we do concede that he was terrible in that game, all that tells us is that he had one bad game, of which every player in the entire league has multiple per season.
As a 20 year season ticket holder that has watched every game that Drew Doughty has ever played in, I can unequivocally state that Doughty is not a terrible defenseman. Is he the Drew Doughty that won the Norris Trophy 2 seasons ago? No, of course not. However, he's still a bonafide #1 defenseman on 15-20 teams in the NHL.
If the article was entitled, "Here are some stats showing why Drew Doughty isn't as elite as everyone says he is." then maybe I could get behind that article. This article, however, is completely abusing advanced stats to make a determination that these stats have no business making.
There is no strawman here.
Not going to argue with you but I bet 30 other teams would take him in a heartbeat
You're right (well contract aside at least), and the playoff teams might actually get some good hockey out of him if he decides to try again
Yes,his contract would make him hard to move, I'm a Red Wings fan,I would like to have him 😉
Oh man, if he was on the Red Wings I'm not even sure he would show up to the games in the first place
Ok I will take that, I don't like you much for saying that but respect & agree some what they will rise again 😉
Correct. If he had been traded to someplace like Toronto, his competitive juices would be flowing again. That's Drew's main problem right now. He was put in a lottery team situation for the past several years, where it's almost counterproductive to try. I expect that to change next season. Kings are going to look totally different now that several of their top prospects are ready to make the jump.
"JFresh" got our click. Good stats. With that said, if you didn't go about it in such a "look at me" fashion as opposed to a "look at my content" it would sit better.
Wouldn't mind seeing an update to this after Doughty's 2020-2021 season and what you expect from him next season.
I just read all the comments and it's split. Either they agree with you or they strongly disagree and still believe that Doughty is a top 10 defensemen. I believe the former.
he still has the talent to be a good defenseman. The problem is that the Kings ran him into the ground over the past couple of season. He isn't hitting as much as he used to and that takes its toll on a defenseman. Doug Lidster in Vancouver was a pretty good defenseman who could have had a longer career if he wasn't run into the ground by Vancouver during the 80's. After he left Vancouver he never played a full season again because he was broken at that point. I also think Drew Doughty is responsible for his poor play. The effort isn't there and the motivation isn't there. During a loosing streak Kesler Vancouver could be brutal and just not give a shit. When they were winning he was awesome and I think that that is what's wrong with Doughty: effort, been run into the ground, and he isn't happy
Legit curious, not trying to be a troll, how many Kings games have you watched the last two seasons?
This is so incredibly spot on, thank you! I'm a new season ticket holder and when you mention that we need to move Doughty, the longtime King fans get livid but for all of the reasons, you're right - inflated salary and market value should be enough, we're buildung the next team. My point is he has lost a step - he can't skate with bottom six forwards in today's game. Move him to Toronto for Nylander straight up and let's move on. Please 🤞
I expect a Doughty for Norris article next year. The Kings have a high possibility of getting a very good prospect this year and have a bunch of young guys that are ready. Doughty has been pissed since Bjornfoot got sent down and the Kings were competing for the 1st overall pick not a playoff spot.
Haha wow get a clue!
Everybody is wrong and you solely is right. You should watch him sometime..Also the kings the last several weeks of season were a top team in NHL..But hey DD sucks ..Your story sucks a$$
Watching Doughty I completely agree. If i am generous he is now a notch below Weber. Both have onerous contracts.
WTF is your dislike for Drew or the Kings? After the Cups, some Kings became overpaid and S L O W. His partner Muzzin moved to the Leafs. Drew has a different young kid he's paired with every night. Against the other teams top line. Yeah, you still need to perform, but his role changed to Mentor to all of them, even at his stastical demise due to it. Best of all he EMBRACES his role and is a Leader on this team. Doesn't care about the Norris or plus/minus, just the Team. As for the kids you mentioned as teammates? They all are improving every game and can play very well.
Seems if you get off a computer and watch him you might change your opinion. Regardless, that's mine.
I don't dislike Drew or the Kings personally. I'd recommend that you read the companion piece to this article written by former Marlies Asst. Coach Jack Han, which breaks down game tape. Doughty's problem is that he isn't leading by example, he plays lazy and disinterested and that's a big reason why his stats have plummeted. I agree with you that the kids are great, which is another reason that I don't let his bad performance off the hook.
You'd have more credibility if you didn't make the crack about this being "the team the Kings deserve." lol