JFresh's Free Agent Frenzy Live Blog

Analytical Instant Reaction to UFA Signings

Thought it might be fun to get all of my reactions to the day’s signings in one place, rather than only having Tweets with the visualizations and analysis. I’ll be updating this post throughout the day and adding new signings/trades as they happen.

Henrik Lundqvist to WSH, 1x$1.5M

No brainer for the Capitals here, who add a consistent 1B who can still play and will definitely have a chip on his shoulder. Lundqvist has fallen off pretty significantly since 2016 but he’s still an average NHL goalie at least and this is pretty low-risk.

Wayne Simmonds to TOR, 1x$1.5M

Don’t like this deal at all for the Leafs. Simmonds is decidedly below-replacement and offers value only as a pure netfront guy. Awful individual and on-ice shooting. Not sure what the fit here is.

Bobby Ryan to DET, 1x$1M

Makes sense. Ryan can still play, he’s an okay third liner and he’s got a nice shot. That’s something the Red Wings, who finished last in the league in PDO on top of being terrible last season, desperately need.

Luke Schenn back to TB, 1x$0.8M

I certainly wouldn’t have resigned Luke Schenn but maybe he’s really really great in the room. Very poor impacts at both ends of the ice and bruuuutal penalty kill numbers.

Pat Maroon back to TB, 2x$0.9

The Bolts are lucky that Maroon apparently hates money. One of the league’s best fourth liners, an excellent playdriver, and an efficient producer. Great deal for the Lightning.

Radko Gudas to FLA, 3x$2.5M

Something went sideways in Washington for Gudas, who previously profiled as a defensive stud and elite penalty killer. Was it him declining or a bad fit? Guess the Panthers have three (pretty cheap) seasons to find out.

Jon Merrill to DET, 1x$0.9M

If you’re looking for a defensive bottom pair defenceman, Merrill is pretty much the best out there. Something the Wings desperately needed, and I’m interested to see whether his numbers can keep up at all in Detroit.

Cam Talbot to MIN, 3x$3.7M

Talbot’s numbers are lowered a lot by his terrible 2018-19 season, but he was at least an above-average NHL goalie this season. This contract seems a bit rich for that, and certainly a bit long, but at least it’s better than what they had before.

Kyle Turris to EDM, 2x$1.6

Turris will need to bounce back to be a useful player at even strength again. He can still pass the puck, and his assist numbers are solid, but this is yet another poor defensive player in the middle of the ice for the Oilers. Tough to be too psyched about this considering that, but he could have some upside.

Braden Holtby to VAN, 2x$4.3

Really tough contract year for Holtby. He was a solidly above-average starter for a while but the Canucks will have to hope he can bounce back. The money and term is pretty agreeable though, and a lot better than going super long term for a bigger ticket guy.

Matt Murray extended by OTT, 4x$6.25M

What a headscratcher. A massive number for one of the league’s most inconsistent goaltenders. He was a mess in Pittsburgh this season, in my opinion the worst starter in the league. His high-danger numbers aren’t awful but he allows so many low-danger goals and so consistently that it really messes with his team’s confidence in him. I liked Ottawa as a destination for him but this is franchise goalie money.

Anton Khudobin back to DAL, 3x$3.5

Love this deal for both sides. Khudobin gets walked to retirement at a nice number, Dallas gets the best 1B goalie in the league at a really nice price.

Alex Wennberg to FLA, 1x$2.25M

I like this for the Panthers. Low risk, Wennberg is still a good passer, and Florida can give him every opportunity to make up some of his lost ground. In terms of playdriving, he’s an average player. Had some poor shooting luck this year so could be a percentage regression candidate.

Evan Rodrigues and Mark Jankowski to PIT, 1x$0.7M

I like both of these depth signings for the Pens. Both guys saw their counting stats take a hit this season - I remember that Jankowski literally had not been on the ice for a GF by December or so - but they project as stable defensive players who can ably fill out the roster. When the prospect pool is sparse these are the kinds of guys you need to be able to plug in.

Tyler Ennis to EDM, 1x$1M

I like Ennis, although he’s far more of a playdriver than a goal driver. Nice fit in a bottom six who can actually score at a pretty high rate.

Mark Borowiecki and Matt Benning to NSH, 2x$2M/$1M

The Predators’ bottom pairing has been a Problem in the past few seasons, and at very low cost they pretty comprehensively improved it. Both of these guys are in the top end of third pair guys, especially Benning, and their skillsets should be pretty compatible. Well done Dave Poile.

Jack Johnson to NYR, 1x$1M

Rangers fans: do not let yourselves get gaslit on this one. This is not an okay deal. Johnson is not a 3rd pairing defenceman. He will not be scratched all the time. He does not bring much-needed physicality and character to the blueline. The guy, god love him, is not an NHL defenceman, and his greatest talent is getting coaches to trust him and play him way more than they should. That Jacques Martin is your defence coach should make this all the more worrying. Godspeed.

Kevin Shattenkirk to ANA, 3x$3.9

Well done Ducks. Shattenkirk is still a strong playdriver and he proved the doubters wrong with a great season in Tampa (where, by the way, his numbers were not all that different than they were in his second year with the Rangers). A top four defenceman of his calibre for that price tag is a nice deal and something they desperately needed - even if I kind of have no idea what the team is trying to do.

Justin Schultz to WSH, 2x$4M

This one is truly jaw-dropping to me. Here’s a guy who is coming off two really crummy seasons and an abysmal playoffs in which his pairing was the laughing stock of the league. And the Capitals, who have been pretty clever in terms of free agent signings recently, give him top four money? Schultz is an offence-only defenceman who isn’t that good offensively, and a powerplay specialist who sucks on the powerplay. I don’t get it.

Jacob Markstrom to CGY, 6x$6M

Now we’re talking. Some real classic July 1st-style money and term here. Markstrom is good - top ten starter in each of the past two seasons good. At least one proprietary model is even higher on him because of the number of rush chances Vancouver allows, which I’m open to but not willing to fully sign onto. Look, goalies are voodoo. Markstrom is almost uniquely consistent lately but that could change quick, as we all know. He stole quite a few games for the Canucks this year but he’s also prone to really bad starts as well. This deal could be a lot worse, but I’m not sold.