Who are the Biggest Early-Season Breakouts and Disappointments So Far?
Using analytics to take a look at the biggest surprises of the first two weeks.
We’re two weeks into the pandemic-shortened 2020-21 season, which means of course that now is the time to make firm and unshakeable assessments about how good players are. Well, no. But I think it is fair to take a look around the league and pick out players whose performance has stood out compared to their prior reputation - for better or for worse. For this piece I’m looking for players with exceptional (or exceptionally poor) results. That means I’m not just looking at points but also on-ice numbers like their team’s share of expected goals (scoring chances) and goals when they’re on the ice. I won’t be focusing on players who have been subject to early season puck luck or misfortune.
Stats come from TopDownHockey unless noted otherwise. As it is far too early in the season to use the types of fancy isolated stats like WAR and RAPM that I usually do for player analysis, these on-ice numbers are influenced by context like linemates and competition.
Break-Outs
Jack Hughes
This one is pretty obvious. Jack Hughes has seven points in his first five games and has garnered a lot of attention around the league for his sudden increase in production. As I wrote about in great detail in December, Hughes’ struggles last year stemmed from his own issues (like a poor shot, questionable decisionmaking after entering the zone, and physical weakness) and external ones (like poor linemates and bad puck luck). Fortunately, there’s been a lot of improvement in both areas. He has 2 5v5 goals so far this season, which matches his total from last year (seriously). On top of that, he’s been much better at controlling the pace of play, protecting the puck, and feeding his linemates dangerous opportunities.
MacKenzie Blackwood
Blackwood was awesome last season, but it can take awhile for a goalie’s reputation to line up with their performance, especially if their team’s not winning. So Blackwood-boosters rejoiced when he started the 2021 season with an absurd run - 3.4 goals saved above expected (GSAx) in three games with a 95% high danger save percentage (per NaturalStatTrick) behind a team that isn’t exactly sparkling defensively. Sadly, the Devils goalie has been in COVID protocol ever since.
Tyler Toffoli
This is one that you absolutely love to see. Toffoli has been a major analytical darling in the past few years due to his almost-unsurpassed ability to drive scoring chances when he’s on the ice. He’s a member of the “take a crapload of shots” school of offence, and it has led to him having exceptional on-ice impacts in shot attempt and expected goal measures. The problem for him in the past several seasons has been how infrequently those shots actually went into the net. He scored 61 goals on 73 expected goals in the three seasons preceding this one, making him one of the least efficient finishers in the league. But so far this year he’s actually scoring! He’s got five goals in six games so far and his underlying numbers are better than ever. If the goals continue to keep pace with his chances, there’s little stopping him from being one of the most cost-effective wingers in the league.
Nick Suzuki and Jonathan Drouin
I hate to linger on the Habs here (their fans are already riding high enough without my help) but I would be remiss without mentioning these two. Are we about to see an actually legitimately good season from Jonathan Drouin? Even Drouin’s most productive stretches in the past have been characterized by brutal defensive numbers and a lot of puck luck. But that’s not how it’s been this season. The Anderson - Suzuki - Drouin line has been legitimately dominant, and both of these players have xGF% and GF% above 60%. Suzuki has caught the attention of hockey fans with his silky hands and superb playmaking, but it’s Drouin who has the best underlying numbers on the unit. Can they keep it up?
Justin Holl
The Leafs offence hasn’t exactly taken off to start the season, but at least their team defence has been better than expected. The reason for that improvement hasn’t been the new acquisitions (Brodie and Bogosian both have an xGF% of below 42%) and it certainly hasn’t come from any d-zone improvements from Morgan Rielly. It’s because of the team’s second pair of Justin Holl and Jake Muzzin. Holl’s performance is especially worth noting because he actually leads the team’s blueline by a pretty wide margin in quite a few of these stats. He’s first in Expected Goals For and Against per 60 minutes, xGF% (by almost eight percentage points over Muzzin), and only barely 2nd place in GF% behind Travis Dermott. Not bad for a guy who’s played the third-most minutes of Toronto defencemen.
Honourable Mentions: Conor Garland, Brady Tkachuk, Semyon Varlamov, Rasmus Ristolainen (?!?!?!?!?!)
Disappointments
It’s still extremely early in the season and we should absolutely not count any of these guys out. But there’s no doubt that things have not gone well for them so far, and their teams are counting on them to really pick it up.
Elias Pettersson
This one is just bizarre. Pettersson has dealt with almost no adversity so far in his career - he went from a brilliant, Calder-winning rookie season to an excellent sophomore campaign that had some (mostly Canucks fans) suggesting that he was already one of if not the best player in the world. Well, the adversity has hit. Pettersson’s point totals are, well, singular. What I’m saying is that the guy has a single point. But this isn’t just bad puck luck. In fact, his on-ice shooting percentage (which was arguably already unsustainably inflated last season) is through the roof at 14.7%! What’s really worrying is that Pettersson and his line keep getting caved in night after night in a way that they just haven’t been before.
In eight games so far this season, Pettersson has had an expected goals for percentage (xGF%) of 50% or higher once. It’s been lower than 33% in half of his games. The Canucks’ first line was supposed to carry the team this year, but it’s been the other way around - in a blowout 7-1 win against Ottawa on Monday night, Pettersson recorded 0 points and had a horrific 32% xGF% at 5v5. Vancouver’s hopes of returning to the playoffs this season are dead in the water unless he can get it together.
It’s also worth noting that J.T Miller has the worst xGF% (24%) of any player in the NHL who’s played 60 minutes or more. So the whole line needs to figure it out.
Evgeni Malkin
Had Evgeni Malkin stayed healthy last season, he might have had a legitimate argument for the 2020 Hart Trophy. In 55 games he scored at a 110 point pace while finishing near the top of the league in Wins Above Replacement. The Penguins were only able to withstand injuries to stars like Sidney Crosby and Jake Guentzel because of him. But Geno has been off. Really off. He ranks second last on the Penguins in xGF% (43%) and GF% (29%), has only a single secondary assist at even strength, and has looked slow and ineffective at both ends of the ice. Jesse Marshall took a deeper look at Malkin’s struggles for The Athletic this moring and highlighted a number of instances where his desperation to get the offence going led to him neglecting his defensive responsibilities in such a way that it led to the Pens getting stuck in their own end even longer.
Tristan Jarry and Matt Murray
During the hiatus last season I wrote a piece on the Penguins’ goaltending dilemma entitled “Murray or Jarry? For the Penguins, There Might Be No Good Option” in which I argued that there was not much reason to be confident in the team’s future at the position regardless of which they chose. Even though predicting anything about goaltending does usually make you look stupid, so far it looks like I was onto something.
The Pens went with Tristan Jarry, reasoning fairly that he was the cheaper option who had performed better more recently than Murray had. So far, he has not rewarded the organization for placing their trust in him. His Goals Saved Above Expected of -4.5 ranks fourth-lowest in the NHL and his unfathomably bad 59% High Danger Save Percentage is last by a longshot. The Penguins’ team defence has been interesting this year - they are allowing very little quantity (ranking 5th in Shot Attempts Against) but lots of quality (27th in Expected Goals Against). Jarry is making them pay for this trade-off.
The Senators, meanwhile, placed an enormous bet on a bounceback season from Murray after he was the league’s worst starting goalie last year. A $6.25M, four-year contract made Murray the 7th-highest paid goaltender in the league and so far he has been… the league’s worst starting goalie again. His -6.4 GSAx and 63% HDSv% are brutal, especially considering the fact that the Senators have been an okay possession team (49.8% xGF%).
Seth Jones
I’m not going to rag on Jones for too long here, in part because it’s way too early for any kind of victory lap, and in part because I actually haven’t had the chance to see him play for the Jackets yet this season. But holy moses his underlying numbers are awful. Among the 77 players who have played more than 100 even strength minutes this season, Jones ranks second-last in xGF% (35%) and ninth-last in GF% (33%). His numbers are a step below his partner Zach Werenski’s and way below the Jackets’ other defencemen who all exceed 54%. The Jackets have been a far worse team with Jones on the ice this season and it will be something to keep an eye on.
Dishonourable Mentions: Erik Karlsson, Morgan Rielly, John Marino