Do the stats tell the whole story with Vegas' analytical darling?
I should probably add: this is an absolutely fantastic article JFresh, and commenting on it is what got me to subscribe to this newsletter. Terrific stuff, and all of your previous posts are tremendous as well. I wish hockey conversations about analytics could be as nuanced and eye-opening as what I've read here, since I used to be super-reductive against it myself ("hurr durr who cares about fancy Corsi stuff just play with some HEART and CHARACTER", not that playing with heart and character are unimportant, of course).
Theodore is not a play maker, as in making plays to free up other players on the team. He is highly skilled at bringing the puck up the ice but poor at distributing it when players are on the fly. They end up stuck at the blue line with no momentum. The more they have emphasized him bringing the puck up ice the less the seem to flow into the zone unless he takes it all the way, which happens once in 1000. Compare him to rookie defense man on vancouver. Very different style and very different use of speed and agility. My opinion, Shea needs to work on his passing while moving at full speed and distrubing the puck while others are at full speed. otherwise they just key on him and know it will be a dump in when he brings up the puck. Transition play has to be quick and crisp. The D can't take half the ice to get full speed. 3 or 4 quick strides and hit someone that is ahead of you at full spead. Once the forwards stop at the blue line momentum is gone.
Having watched a few of the Knights' games in the playoffs, I think it's something of a combination of the rebounds/empty-calorie explanation (both can be true, as you pointed out in the article).
Basically: Theodore is great at carrying pucks into the zone, setting up passing plays, etc. But he's also not really as "crafty" as some other offensive defensemen; his plays can often be brute-force shooting, with Vegas lacking the screens in front of opposing goalies for those shots to really mean something. Shooting a lot is great, but shooting from the blueline while the goaltender is unscreened, only for the goalie to smother it or deflect the rebound away from Vegas' forwards isn't terribly creative, and can easily help kill an offensive chance. Maybe Theodore needs a better playmaker as his defensive partner, one who can help set him up in better shooting positions? Also, the Knights should probably do a better job of "getting guys to the net" to make those shots go from zero-calorie point shots to dangerous, screened shots.
I wonder if there's anyone remotely similar from the past (since 2007-08) to use as a comp.
Lots of ice time but very sheltered, elite xG, and actual goals lag behind xG. All for 2 straight seasons.
And then see how they did for season 3 and beyond. Hopefully with the same team and relatively static personnel.
This and your Hughes and Kakko posts are so GREAT! (I've not dived into earlier posts yet, but will.)
It's definitely a combination of overrated perimeter shots pumping his stats and a lack of finishing skill by teammates. How many times do we watch a prime second chance get thrown to a savable area? I don't know if I can watch Walnuts or Marchy hit the goalies logo in a series deciding game. All in all, I still like Shea. I guess I should 27 is on the back of my jersey!